5 BASICS OF TREND PREDICTION – CREATE A FASHION BRAND (2024)

To start the journey of learning how to predict trends, we should always start with the basics. Trend prediction relies on fiveideasthat worktogether to produce an overall trend per season:

Colour
Themes
Shapes
Key Events or Social Movements
Social Customs or Target Market

Each of these five trendscan be predicted on their own,but some research is needed. That’s because they will be effected by the output you intend the trend to be used for. For example,colours will vary between denim and knitwear due to the process of dying the source fabric or yarn, and shapes can vary depending on youroverall theme. Mostly though, trends intermingle and grow based on one another. So let’s take a look at how you can use these five elements to predict what’s going to be popular.

COLOUR:

Colours dependon the trend of the theme they’re accompanying. For example, it’s very unlikely to have a luminous pink if the theme is based around neutrals and tranquillity. Of course there are exceptions. This happens when designers take a colour with an extreme contrast and use it as a highlight in a product line. However, this is usually a choice made by a designer for their market (more on this later) and not part of the trend itself.

Colours are usuallydetermined by what’s called a ‘move on’ from a previous season. Themes and colours will show up in a few shows in one season. Then in the next season they will move on to become a key colour. It’s even possible that they will be used in a third season, showing up as a strong highlight colour after deepening. If you can spot these colours in advance, you can use this information to predict trends for the following season.

THEMES:

Themes are the key element of design and crucial in predicting trends. Like colour they have a ‘move on’ system, generally moving through 3-4 different seasons. They start as a small idea with one designer, fade in and become fashionable, and then fade out again.

SHAPES:

Shapesgenerally respond to the themes themselves. For example, if a 50’s theme was coming through you could bet that a 50’s full skirt and twin-set would be in there somewhere too. However, the key shapes of a season can have such an influence that they can become a trend in their own right, and will be used across all types of colours and visual themes.

The shape can also refer to the cut of a garment. For example, if the idea of a’boyfriend shirt’ ispopular you could use the overall theme that the shirt fits into to decide if it’s going to be a boxy shape or feminine shape. You’re basing the ‘cut’ of the garment on the characteristics of the theme. Often though, shapes can refer to something as simple as a sleeve type or skirt shape. Sometimes even particular details like a pocket, neckline or cuff can also beinfluenced by the overall theme of the line.

KEY EVENTS or SOCIAL MOVEMENTS:

A smaller but still important part of trend prediction is the interpretation of key events or social movements. In the way that many trends can ‘trickle down’ there is also the possibility for a trend to ‘trickle up’ as well. A large sporting event can influence the themes, shapes and colours of a season. When you look at the Royal Wedding for Kate Middleton and Prince William, you can see more than an 80% increase inhigh-neckedlace wedding dresses. People even began asking boutiques for thatprecise Alexander McQuren dress, or for their own version of it.

Another social event that effected the fashion industry was the economy. As the economy took a turn for the worse, there was a social movementto ‘make do and mend’. With that idea in mind, designers started taking more interest in a handmade look. Chanel even went asfar as to patchwork an entire collection.

Trends can also be influenced by large events like a popular film or a major political movement. When TheLord of the Ringsfilmwas released, designers started usinglightweightfabrics in long flowing dresses like that of Galadriel. Black Swan influenced a full season of ballet inspired clothes and soft sportswear trends. That’s why it can be useful to stay on top of current events. Popular culture can have a large influences on the themes, colours and shapes that designers will use in their lines.

SOCIAL CUSTOMS and TARGET MARKET:

Social customs and target market are probably the most specific (smallest) contributing factors to trend prediction. However, in terms of producing your own trends, or delivering your ideas to a group of people, they’revery important. You should tweak yourthemes so that they match thepeople you are presenting or selling to. This should never beunderestimated.

For example, the social customs of your target market might dictate that a particular skirt length is not appropriate. So in this situation you wouldn’t promote mini skirts of the 60’s. Instead, you could adapt the theme to fit and use a baby doll shape or maxi, which would both include the trend and cover your market and social customs. You can tweak your colour choices to your target market as well.

You can also predict trends by looking at the catwalkseach season. When you go to fashion shows you’ll notice recurring themes across each city. For example, London is definitelythe most individual city. There you’ll find various collections of street based inspiration whichmix grungy looks with high end tailoring. On the other hand, Milan is always the most brightlycoloured and provocative.

By taking these five ideas into account, you can learn how to effectively predict trends in the fashion industry. You might find it difficult at first, but with a keen attention to detail you’ll begin to see things that other people miss. That’s going to give you a big advantage over others in the industry.

Open up your internet browser andlook for images ofcatwalk / runway shows for any recent season.
Pick 5or 6 [ or more ] designers and go through their collections, looking at each picture.
See if you canput each image into one of the 5 trend areas above. [Don’t forget they could fit into more than 1 of the 5 areas]
If you’re feeling confident, try to guess what type of trend it might be too. So Grandad Shirts. 70’s. Cigarette pants……
When you are done find some fashion trend reports for the same season, either from a web magazine, like Vogue or if you are lucky enough to have access, trend booksorWGSN etc… see ifyour trend ideas match up.
If you’re right….then that is fab. If not, don’t worry, just have a look at what was a trend and try to see where you made a mistake [It might be that you just picked designers that didn’t have those types of garment]
Keep doing this when you have time. You skills will improve quickly.