6 Reasons Why Big Box Retailers Pose a Threat You Should Worry About (2024)

By Tricia McKinnon

Someone at Walmart’s headquarters must be sipping on a glass of wine each time antitrust allegations are brought up against Amazon. Yes Amazon is big but Walmart is bigger, twice the size. In 2019 Walmart generated$514 billionin revenue while Amazon generated $281 billion. If you take a closer look you will see that Amazon actually only holds an estimated6%of the retail market in the United States. A big number for one company but hardly a takeover of the industry.

While everyone is focused on Amazon, at times to their detriment, a formidable set of competitors is rising. For lack of a better term call them big box retailers and they include the likes of Walmart, Target and Costco. They are established, have deep pockets and are savvy, best-in-class retailers. While some consider them dinosaurs their performance, especially in 2020 tells a different story. Yes, the pandemic favoured these companies but to capitalize on a trend you have to be ready for it and they were.

As the New York Timeswrites: “over the 14 years through 2013, Amazon added $38 billion in sales while Costco added $50 billion and the Sam’s Club division of Walmart $32 billion. Amazon had the higher growth rate, but the bigger problem for most brick-and-mortar stores was other, largerbrick-and-mortarstores.”

Target’s CEO Brian Cornellsaysthat Target increased market share by more than$5 billionin the first half of 2020. Whether you are a small retailer or a larger retailer, watch out for the big box retailers. Amazon awakened the dinosaurs and now they are coming for your customers in these ways.

1.They are best in the best position to provide an omni-channel experience

For years analysts have talked about the importance of omni-channel retailing but 2020 is really the year omni-channel retailing had its birthday party. In the second quarter of 2020 eCommerce only represented16.1%of total retail sales in the United States. That means stores aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. But to be a great retailer you have to figure out how to meet your customers where they are. That could be in-store, at home or in their car as they drive up to pick up an order. The retailers that are the best at meeting these needs are having the greatest success.

With 75% of the US population living within 10 miles of a Target store, Target is able to leverage its store network to provide a desired service in a way that other retailers including Amazon cannot.For example, Target provides a Drive Up service which allows customers to pull into a Target parking lot at nearly 2,000 stores one to two hours after making a purchase online and have Target employees bring their purchase directly to their car.

In Target’s most recent quarter it experienced its strongest sales growth ever. Sales were up by 24.3% in the second quarter and key to that growth is its omni-channel offering. “Our second quarter comparable sales growth of 24.3% is the strongest we have ever reported, which is a true testament to the resilience of our team and the durability of our business model. Our stores were the key to this unprecedented growth, with in-store comp sales growing 10.9% and stores enabling more than three-quarters of Target’s digital sales, which rose nearly 200%,”saidCornell. Target’s Drive Up service grew the fastest out of all of Target’s same day eCommerce services, up more than 700% in the second quarter.

“Target definitely smashed it out of the park… It’s very evident that today more than ever [a] good omni-channel strategy is key for any retailer to survive.It’s not just about selling key essentials but really investing in the omnichannel experience – something that Target did five years ago”saidMichael Lasser, broadline and hardline Retail Analyst at UBS.

Walmart has had similar successwith its eCommerce sales up97%in the second quarter of 2020.“Having a wide range of fulfillment options, including delivery to home, collection from store – and by using stores for fulfillment – allowed Walmart to ramp up capacity in a way that many other players struggled to do. We also believe that by using stores effectively, Walmart mitigated some of the higher costs associated with the online channel”saidNeil Saunders, Managing Director at GlobalData Retail. That sentiment was echoed whenWalmart CFO Brett Briggssaid:“it is a big advantage being an omnichannel retailer and I think that is showing right now. We were able to quickly use stores to fill online orders.”

Even Amazon is working on becoming a better omni-channel retailer.Amazon nowhas more retail stores than many national chainswith 591brick and mortar stores.That’s more stores than Trader Joe’s and lululemon which have 488 and 460 stores respectively. Amazon even opened a new grocery store chain earlier this year (during a pandemic!) called Amazon Fresh.

Providing so many options to receive eCommerce orders is difficult for smaller retailers. They do not have enough stores to make pick up services convenient. And even if they offer delivery, it’s anexpensive serviceto provide especially when customers are buying lower priced items or in small quantities.

2. They are best positioned to serve price conscious consumers

In1985it took, on average,a male breadwinner in the United States30 weeksto pay for critical expenditures likehousing, healthcare, transportation and education for a family of four. By 2018 it took 53 weeks. The situation is even worse forfemale breadwinners who in 1985 took 45 weeks to cover those expenses and needed 66 weeks to do so in 2018.This means that both male and female breadwinners are living below the cost of living line. What does all of this mean? It means that consumers have less money to buy many of the items retailers sell. And when they do make a purchase they are choosing lower priced retailers over higher-priced retailers out of necessity.

COVID-19 is like a double whammy for retailers since many consumers reigned in their spending habits after the last recession hit and never looked back. Now with the pandemic the situation is even worse. More than40 million Americans have filed for unemployment since the pandemic hit meaning discretionary income is even harder to come by.

Sears was an early casualty of the shift in consumer spendingto lower priced retailers.At one point, in1990,Sears and Walmart were practically the same size, generating revenues of$31.9 billion and $32.6 billionrespectively. Walmart saw a future in discount retailing and aggressively went after that market chipping away over time at consumers that once would have shopped at Sears. At some point Sears was simply priced out of the market by discount retailers like Walmart and Target. As the Economistwrites:“Sears was not alone in occupying the uncomfortable ground between discounters whose prices it could not match and high-end retailers whose stores and products outshone its own.”

If retailers cannot provide the right level of value they risk losing out to retailers like Walmart as well as Amazon who have a greater ability to undercut prices and give consumers the value for money they desire.

3.They offer one stop shopping

It is not a coincidence that many of the retailersthat are performing well during the COVID-19 pandemic offer one stop shopping. From Walmart to Target to Costco customers are seekingrefuge in retailers where they can get what they are looking for in one trip. You could attribute this to the pandemic since consumers are reducing their exposure to COVID-19 by consolidating their shopping trips but that doesn’t explain why consumers are choosing these retailers for online purchases when they can easily and safely make purchases from other retailers from the comfort of their homes.

What we are witnessing is a trend towards moreconvenient shopping trips.Why buy your grocery and household items online from several different retailers when you can save time by getting everything you need from Target. Shopping with one retailer also saves you delivery fees. Having everything in one place simply makes shopping easier.With more dual income householdspeople have less timefor shopping and would rather consolidate their trips, not only now but in the future.

Consider a weekly decision about where to shop for groceries. A customer is deciding whether to shop at Target or at their favourite local grocery store. By shopping at Target the customer can buy groceries, a baking pan (because isn’t everyone baking now?) and even a new laptop computer all in one order. Shopping at the local grocery store immediately necessitates more shopping trips which is an inconvenience for someone with limited time.

The desire for one stop shopping is not new. Think about the days when Sears was the largest retailer in the world. Consumers would spend their Saturday afternoons at the mall getting everything in one trip.The fall of Searsand other department stores has only served to usher in a new kind of department store, the big box store. It has a different name but in many respects it serves the same function.Consumers can shop at a Walmart or a Target and get most of their weekly needs fulfilled without having to shop at multiple stores.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also created an interesting phenomenon. Many of the impulse shopping trips consumers make on a daily basis are shifting to big box retailers. Think about a walk home from work. As you walk home you often stop along the way. An inviting store window pulls you in and before you know it you have bought a new pair of pants. This is the way many retailers stay afloat, it’s called walk in traffic. Consumers discover retailers while they are doing fairly rudimentary daily activities. Now those activities largely do not exist. They will come back but in the meantime, those dollars are shifting to other retailers. Targetacquired10 millionnew digital customers during the first half of 2020.That’s a staggering number for a retailer that already has a large customer base. Many of those customers used to frequently shop at mom and pop local retailers. But once they have a taste of Target they may not return. Change is hard until you try something new and like it.

4. They have deep pockets

While stores are important so is eCommerce. But eCommerce is expensive. When you shift activities consumers used to complete on their own to a retailer, someone has to pay for it.

Think about the last time you made a purchase online, say for groceries from Walmart. Walmart picked, packed and delivered your order all while you sat patiently or not so patiently waiting for your order to arrive. Even if you paid a delivery fee it is often not enough to cover those expenses.A study by the Capgemini Institute found that on average retailers charge their customers just80%of the cost of delivering goods. 97% of those surveyed in the same study said that grocery delivery models are “unsustainable” without finding other avenues to eliminate costs.

After suffering its first decline in sales in 2015 since 1970, Walmart entered into attack mode. Against who? Amazon.To increase its eCommerce growth Walmart purchased a host of eCommerce businesses including Jet.com for $3 billion (in 2016) and digitally native brands Bonobos for $310 million (in 2017), Eloquii for $100 million (in 2018) and ModCloth for between $50 million to $75 million (in 2017).Along the way Walmart seems to have figured out how to succeed in eCommerce with salesup 97% in the second quarterof 2020. But Walmarthas spent billions of dollars in the process and is still struggling with profitability with its US eCommerce business estimated to havelost $2 billion in 2019.

While everyone is trying to be the next Amazon it’s important to realize Amazon struggles with profitability in its eCommerce business as well. Morgan Stanley estimatesthe average order value for a one day shipping order from Amazon is$8.32.It costs $10.59 to fulfill and ship that order which means Amazon loses money on many orders. In the third quarter of 2019 Amazon spent$9.6 billionon shipping costs. That’s just in one quarter!

If you are the little guy or even a bigger guy like Kohl’s it’s very hard to keep up with the Walmart’s and Amazon’s of the world who seem to have a near limitless of funds on spend on eCommerce dominance.

5. They sell frequently purchased items that draw customers in week after week

Expenditures on food is thethird largest expensein the United States after housing and transportation. If a retailer sells groceries it can count on a steady flow of traffic.We all think of Walmart as a grocery retailer now but when Walmart opened its first store inthe 1960s it didnot sell groceries. Expanding into groceries is largely credited with turning Walmart into the retail giant it is today.

Selling groceries increases frequency of visits since most consumers shop for groceries on a weekly basis. After a consumer shops for groceries at any of the big box retailers they will often browse and then purchase other items. How many times have consumers bought a TV atCostcoon their the way to the broccoli aisle? The number is likely in the millions.

Amazon has also recognized this dependency, with Amazon’s CEOJeff Bezossayingover a decade ago that for Amazon to become a $200 billion retailer it has to figure out how to sell food.That is why Amazon purchased Whole Foods and why it openeda new grocery chain, Amazon Fresh, earlier this year.

6. They offer private brands that are just as good if not better than traditional brands

Successful retailers have long known about the power of a strong private label brand. Having a great private label brand gives customers a reason for choosing one retailer over another. If you love Costco’s private label brand Kirkland Signature you can only shop at Costco to get it.

In 2018 the Kirkland Signature brandgenerated $39 billion in sales for Costco, up 11% from 2017. That is more sales than the Gap and Nordstrom make combined.Kirkland Signature is a key source of revenue for Costco, compromisingapproximately25%of Costco’s total sales.The best private brands lure customers in by offering high quality products but at lower prices than traditional brands like Kraft. Kirkland Signature branded products are typically 20% cheaper than the traditional brands sold at Costco.

The Food Marketing Institute’s research shows thatclose to50%of consumers specifically look out for a particular private label branded itemfrom a retailer.Investing in private label brands is nota new strategy, private brands have been around for decades. But guess what? They work. Whether its Walmart, Target or Costco they have built a portfolio of owned brands that customers are increasingly turning to.