The technical definition of a bear market is clear. Once a benchmark index like the S&P 500 falls by 20% from its all-time high, it's considered to be in bear territory. Declaring the start of a new bull market, however, is a little more tricky.
The S&P 500 index bottomed in Oct. 2022, and it has since climbed more than 20% higher. Some Wall Street professionals say that's enough to mark the beginning of a new bull market, but others want to see the index reclaim its previous high before calling it official.
No matter which side is correct, the Street is clearly bullish on some individual stocks right now, regardless of what the broader market does. Here are two beaten-down picks that could more than double over the next 12 to 18 months based on analysts' price targets.
1. Sea Limited: Implied upside of 135%
Sea Limited (SE) is a triple threat when it comes to the digital economy, operating in e-commerce, digital entertainment (gaming), and digital payments. But that also means the company is heavily exposed to consumer spending, and given this tough environment with elevated inflation and rising interest rates, that isn't a great place to be right now.
Investors came to love Sea Limited's lightning-fast revenue growth over the last few years even though it came at the expense of profitability. But to compensate for the uncertain economic climate, the company has shifted its focus away from outright growth toward generating profits. That has sent its stock price plunging 90% from its all-time high, but the decline might have gone too far.
In the second quarter, Sea Limited slashed its operating costs with marketing taking the biggest haircut, down by half on a year-over-year basis. That meant fewer dollars were spent on customer acquisition, and as a result, the company's revenue grew just 5% year over year; in the year-ago period, it grew 29%.
But here's the good news. Sea Limited generated net income of $331 million during the quarter, which was a seismic turnaround from its $931 million net loss a year ago. That takes the company's net income to $841 million over the last three quarters combined, which is a sure sign its profit-focused strategy is working.
Plus, its e-commerce business still remained strong in Q2 with revenue growing 20% in that segment alone. It was driven by its hybrid consumer-to-consumer and business-to-consumer marketplace called Shopee, which experienced an uptick in new customers and an uptick in their purchase frequency compared to Q1. Gaming was the drag with revenue shrinking 41%. That business is still finding its footing now that pandemic-related restrictions have lifted, and gamers are spending less time online.
Nonetheless, Sea Limited's revenue should catch a boost across the board when the economy improves, even if the company remains cost-conscious. And thanks to its leaner cost structure, much of that additional revenue will likely flow to the bottom line as profit.
Wall Street sees value in Sea Limited stock. Analysts at investment bank UBS have given it a price target of $86, or 135% higher than where it trades as of this writing.
2. Upstart Holdings: Implied upside of 121%
Upstart Holdings (UPST 9.84%) stock has sent investors on a roller-coaster ride since listing publicly in 2020. It hit the market priced at $20 per share, then surged to an all-time high of $401 before plunging 92% to about $33, where it trades today.
The company has developed an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered algorithm designed to assess the creditworthiness of potential borrowers, which it says is more accurate than Fair Isaac's traditional FICO scoring system. It analyzes 1,600 data points compared to FICO's five core metrics, and thanks to AI, it delivers instant, automatic loan approvals 87% of the time. That's a major time and money saver compared to manual human-driven loan processes.
Things were going well up until 2022 when a rapid rise in interest rates shook the confidence of Upstart's funding partners (banks and financial institutions). They were uncertain of the algorithm's ability to account for the difficult economic conditions, so they were purchasing fewer of the loans Upstart was originating. Consumer demand for credit was plunging at the very same time, dealing the company a one-two punch and ultimately causing its revenue growth to stall.
Since then, Upstart has published troves of data showing its loan performance is still incredibly strong, and demand has started to return. In May, a pair of funding partners committed $4 billion in liquidity to ensure Upstart remains well funded to continue originating loans. Plus, in Q2, it processed 30% more personal unsecured loans than it did in Q1, so consumer demand is also coming back.
The result led to Upstart's first sequential-revenue growth in more than a year last quarter, which is another sign the worst of this challenging period might be over.
Over the long term, the company is eyeing a total addressable opportunity worth $4 trillion per year across personal loans, auto loans, business loans, and mortgages. Now that its AI algorithm has proven its worth in one of the toughest credit environments in recent memory, Upstart can shift its focus back to growing the business.
Wall Street firm BTIG is on board. It has a $72 price target on Upstart stock, which implies it could surge 121% from where it trades today.
Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Sea Limited and Upstart. The Motley Fool recommends Fair Isaac. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
