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There are many reasons for the current interest in granting statehood to D.C. Foremost among them is the ongoing reality that 1 out of every 467 Americans has only nominal representation in Congress. Only slightly behind that, a densely populated area with more residents than two states is denied a voice in the U.S. Senate despite the purported primacy of granting smaller localities an equal voice in that chamber.
That particular imbalance is exacerbated by politics: While D.C. is heavily Democratic, the Senate’s construction has recently favored less-populous Republican states. Add the weight-shifting effect of the filibuster, and a situation frustrating to Democrats becomes one that’s galling.
Add in Democrats retaking control of the House in 2019 and the push for D.C. statehood has become clamorous. It’s perhaps only slightly more likely to succeed than similar efforts over the past several decades, including an almost-there effort in 1993. But it’s impossible not to notice that one factor commonly cited as an unspoken political obstacle to the statehood effort — the city’s densely Black population — is no longer the case.
In 1957, D.C. became the first large city in the United States to be majority Black, earning it the moniker “Chocolate City.” That shift was in part a function of an expanding Black population during the baby boom. But it was more a function of Whites moving out of the city. Between 1950 and 1960, D.C. added 131,000 Black residents and lost 173,000 White ones.
(The Census Bureau has only been tracking Hispanic ethnic identity, as distinct from White and Black racial identity, for about 50 years. The data used in this article don’t segment out Whites and Blacks who are Hispanic from the overall populations.)
In 1970, the city had its peak Black density over the last century, with Blacks making up more than 7 in 10 residents. Over the next 30 years, that density declined and, like the shifts in the 1950s, that decline was a function of population loss more than an increase among non-Black residents.
About 20 years ago, that began to change. Between 2000 and 2019, the most recent year for which data are available, the number of Whites in D.C. increased by about 84 percent, while the density of the Black population declined by 5 percent. The city now has about as many White residents as it does Black residents for the first time since the late 1950s.
The irony of this shift is that, even as the population has grown less densely Black, it has also voted more heavily Democratic in presidential races. In 1964, the first election in which the District could affect the presidential race with electoral votes, D.C. preferred Lyndon B. Johnson by a 71-point margin, 48 points more Democratic than the country overall. By 2000, D.C. preferred Al Gore by 76 points. In 2020, it voted for Biden by an 87-point margin — more than the margin Barack Obama saw in 2008 both absolutely and relative to each candidate’s national margin.
There was never a time in recent history when D.C. would have voted for a Republican member of Senate. But the tiny likelihood of that has only declined even as the city has grown less densely Black.
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This is in keeping with broad national trends, of course. Urban areas such as D.C. have gotten more deeply blue in recent decades in part because they’ve become destinations for college-educated Whites. It’s certainly the case that the city’s demographics at one point contributed to apathy about considering it for statehood. But it seems clear that the central consideration for both Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill when considering statehood for D.C. is currently the likelihood of adding two Democratic senators to a wobbly balance of power in that chamber.
Republicans have taken positions against statehood in recent weeks, using a number of arguments meant to highlight the District’s unusual nature. Some of those arguments center on how D.C. is relatively small. That’s true, but it remains more populous than either Vermont or Wyoming, which represent 4 percent of the Senate. It’s also true that D.C.’s population has declined substantially since 1950. In that year, it was larger than 15 states.
But that has turned around. D.C.’s population increased much faster than Wyoming’s from 2010 to 2019 as Vermont’s declined. Most of that increase was an influx of new White residents.
D.C. is no longer Chocolate City. But it would almost certainly be a Democratic state.
As a seasoned expert on political dynamics and demographic shifts in the United States, I've closely followed the ongoing debate surrounding the potential statehood for Washington, D.C. My comprehensive knowledge in this field is underlined by a deep understanding of historical trends, political maneuvering, and demographic changes that have shaped the discourse on this matter.
The current push for D.C. statehood is driven by several compelling factors, as outlined in the provided article. One of the primary reasons is the glaring issue of underrepresentation in Congress, where 1 out of every 467 Americans in D.C. lacks substantial representation. The article points out the unique situation where a densely populated area with more residents than some states is denied a voice in the U.S. Senate, creating an imbalance in the political landscape.
Moreover, the article delves into the political dynamics at play, highlighting the Democratic leanings of D.C. and how this contrasts with the Senate's current composition, which favors less-populous Republican states. The filibuster adds another layer of complexity, further frustrating Democrats in their pursuit of statehood.
A significant shift in D.C.'s demographic makeup is also crucial to understanding the evolving landscape. Once known as "Chocolate City" due to its majority Black population, the city has experienced a transformation over the years. The demographic changes, marked by an increase in the White population and a decline in Black density, challenge previously held assumptions about the political implications of D.C.'s racial composition.
Contrary to historical trends, the article notes that even as D.C. has become less densely Black, its political leaning has shifted more towards the Democratic side. This paradoxical relationship between demographics and political affiliation underscores the complexity of the issue.
The historical context provided in the article, dating back to 1957 when D.C. became majority Black, offers valuable insights into the city's past and its trajectory. The piece also highlights the increasing Democratic support in presidential races, emphasizing the city's alignment with broader national trends of urban areas leaning more towards the Democratic party.
As the article discusses the recent Republican opposition to D.C. statehood, it addresses arguments about the city's relatively small size compared to states like Vermont or Wyoming. However, the expert analysis counters these arguments by pointing out D.C.'s current population growth, driven largely by an influx of White residents.
In conclusion, the debate over D.C. statehood is a multifaceted issue shaped by historical, demographic, and political factors. My expertise allows me to navigate through these complexities, providing a nuanced understanding of the ongoing discussion and the potential implications of granting statehood to Washington, D.C.
