Posted by sean
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On today’s show we discuss:
- U.S. crude turns positive, Brent pares losses on OPEC+ cut rumors
- Was the Nasdaq 100 in a bubble?
- Fed minutes show most officials favored slowing rate rises soon
- Miami nightclubs mourn the absence of high-rolling crypto entrepreneurs
- BlockFi files for bankruptcy
- Investor home purchases drop 30% as rising rates, high prices cool housing market
- Amazon plans to invest $1 billion a year in movies for theaters
- Disney’s theme parks are a sore spot for investors
- The seasonality of weight gain
Listen here:
Recommendations:
Charts:
Tweets:
— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) April 2, 2022So far in 2022:
Energy Sector +39% vs S&P 500 -5%Three reasons we see the Energy rally continuing:
1: Energy Security Re-Rating,
2: Portfolio Diversification/Hedge, &
3: Momentum Rotation
Two-year Treasuries now yield 0.7 points more than 10-years. You must go back to the early 1980s to find a wider spread for this closely watched indicator of future recession risk.$IEF $SPY pic.twitter.com/lbD29tOxIZ
— Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (@DataTrekMB) November 22, 2022
FOMC Minutes: It seems like a growing consensus that it's time to wait for data to reflect lagged impact of rapid tightening to date. Terminal rate debate is going on among the "various". Reality is - Fed won't know the terminal rate until its behind them.
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) November 23, 2022
Chart strongly suggests inflation in Germany was supply chain driven--not the result of monetary policy. So can ECB pause now with an eye towards continued improvement in supply chains? pic.twitter.com/ATRHyRlt0s
— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) November 28, 2022
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) November 23, 2022Active vs passive fund flows since 2000…
What a chart.
— Ben Johnson, CFA (@MstarBenJohnson) November 22, 2022From @MorningstarInc Direct: Trailing 12-month flows for Active/Passive Mutual Funds/ETFs.
Notable:
1.) Active mutual funds are the outlier ($797 Bil in net outflows over TTM)
2.) Passive ETFs have gotten way out ahead of index mutual funds ($541 Bil more in net flows over TTM) pic.twitter.com/Sm88oIpC9i
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 23, 2022Credit card debt is near pre-pandemic levels and this is the latest worry.
What they don't tell you is consumers are using only 21% of their total credit, well beneath the 24% avg pre-pandemic.
Also, household debt payments relative to income is near historically low levels. pic.twitter.com/2vR3ImaiYF
— Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) November 22, 2022Exotic car market is getting decimated right now.
2021 Mercedes G-Wagon with 3,378 miles just sold for $187K at auction.
that’s nearly an $80K (or 30%) drop in under 12 months.
The one year price chart of #Solana has stretched my imagination and made me rethink everything I thought I knew about investing and markets and venture capital. Exciting and humbling. pic.twitter.com/D314Ym4QBp
— Coronado 'Porch' Lindzon (@howardlindzon) November 4, 2021
— Lucas Nuzzi (@LucasNuzzi) November 22, 20225/ As you can see, the majority of the outflows happened in Q4 2021. Things noticeably cool down after that.
To us, this is a sign that they took a huge hit as markets contracted in Q4.
As mindblowing as this might be: it's possible by the time Terra happened, they were broke.
Alameda's massive losses in 2021 indicates that the insolvency didn't just originate in the Luna blowup from
— Doug Colkitt (@0xdoug) November 21, 2022
May of this year. https://t.co/Kt2RTBf9EO
A LOT of people have asked me to do a thread on the $GBTC, Grayscale, DCG, Genesis situation but primarily with regard to GBTC. First off.. DCG & Genesis own a ton of GBTC. Almost 67 million shares as of 9/30/22. The bulk of that was added in the second quarter 2022. 1/X pic.twitter.com/4Vhccj4vkg
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 23, 2022
— db (@tier10k) November 28, 2022Crypto companies currently in bankruptcy proceedings
3AC
Voyager
Celsius
FTX
BlockFiRestructuring lawyers up big
BlockFi's 4th largest creditor is the SEC, to whom the company owes $30m. I presume that's left over from the $100m fine and settlement it agreed to in Feb. 2022. pic.twitter.com/WVmbXXFXsd
— Jacob Silverman (@SilvermanJacob) November 28, 2022
Case Shiller 20 City M/M: -1.24%, Exp. -1.20%, Last -1.30%
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 29, 2022
Case Shiller 20 City Y/Y: 10.43%, Exp. 10.55%, Last 13.06%
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) November 28, 2022The housing market:
Direct evidence of the decline in VC investment volumes: the unicorn birthrate has collapsed. pic.twitter.com/DcrbnzVJdH
— Brett Winton (@wintonARK) November 23, 2022
Here are six public companies that are now valued way below their total funding since inception 📉$ACAST $BRDS $ROO $RENT $GRAB $BGRY pic.twitter.com/tA8bjiQG16
— Quartr (@Quartr_App) November 23, 2022
IGER SAYS DISNEY PRIORITIES ARE PROFITABILITY AND TAKING HARD LOOK AT COST STRUCTURE -- TOWN HALL MEETING$DIS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 28, 2022
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