BoJ ends negative interest rate regime (2024)

In focus today

  • We have a light schedule for today.

  • In the euro area, focus is on German ZEW data for March. The assessment of the current economic situation is still very poor while the expectations component has increased significantly. Momentum in the German economy is weak, so it will be interesting to see if this changed in March ahead of the PMIs on Thursday.

  • In Sweden, Deputy Governor Martin Flodén gives a lecture on the economic situation and current monetary policy at 14:00.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has decided to set the overnight call rate as its new policy rate and guide it in a range of 0-0.1%, finally ending the era with negative interest rates. At the same time, it officially terminates yield curve control. BoJ does, however, promise to continue its JGB purchases at broadly the same pace and make nimble responses in case of rapid rate increases. The decision was taken with a 7-2 majority vote, with the opposing members asking for more time to see the wage outcome in smaller businesses, which was also our key argument why the BoJ would wait to move in April. At the same time, the central bank discontinues its ETF and J-REIT purchases. The move was largely priced in already and thus the market reaction has been modest, with USD/JPY trading higher from the 149.3 to 149.8 levels and the 10-year JGB-rate actually dropping a couple of basis points as central bank purchases remain intact.

We expect the BoJ to move cautiously from here and we do not see a steep hiking cycle ahead. BoJ will assess the situation meeting by meeting and might find room for a few more small hikes if wage growth on big business rubs off sufficiently on the SME segment.

In Australia, as anticipated by markets and consensus, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate at 4.35%. Previously, RBA had still explicitly maintained the door open for further hikes, but now they simply stated that 'the board is not ruling anything in or out', which the markets took as a relatively more dovish signal. Markets are now pricing in the first rate cut for the September meeting.

What happened yesterday

In the euro area, final HICP inflation figures for February confirmed the flash print. Hence, headline inflation rose 2.6% y/y, core 3.1% and food 4.0%, energy fell 3.7%, while services rose 4.0% and core goods rose 1.6%. In general, decomposing the print reveals that the disinflationary process continued, though the momentum in core services remained markedly high and ongoing, posing upside risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, food inflation has finally started to approach the 2% target after being elevated for a long time.

In Norway, Mainland-GDP surprised to the upside, coming in at 0.4% m/m (cons: 0.1%), clearly higher than what Norges Bank (NB) estimated in the December MPR (-0.2%). Hence, the print hints toward some slightly hawkish tones ahead of the MPC-meeting on Thursday where we expect NB to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%.

In the commodity space, Brent crude climbed to USD86/bbl, its highest level since November, amid Ukraine intensifying attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Equities: Global equities were higher yesterday with Europe being a notable underperformer despite a cyclical rotation and macroeconomic news if anything slightly supportive for Europe. In the US we saw a much more growth-cyclical rotation with communication services massively outperforming driven by mega cap GOOGL. Small caps underperformed after a strong Friday session. It is fascinating to see all the hype and frenzy playing around AI and large cap tech while more or less the opposite is taking place in small caps. Investors can easily agree that large cap AI-related tech looks expensive, but they dare not underweight them after a very strong run. Small caps look cheap and attractive, but no one dares to overweight them after a very long run with massive underperformance. In US yesterday, Dow +0.2%, S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.8% and Russell 2000 -0.7%. Asian markets are mixed this morning with Japan outperforming after a dovish hike from BoJ weakening the currency. US and European futures are lower this morning.

FI: Yields grinded marginally higher with limited new information as markets await the FOMC meeting tomorrow evening. The final inflation data from the euro area did not impact markets, however it showed some noteworthy trends as the domestic inflation gauge, on which Lagarde and ECB have focused a lot over the recent months, only declined marginally to 4.5% while also the PCCI indicator rose to above 2%. We do not think that ECB will deviate from delivering the first rate cut in June, however this clearly questions the number and pace of rate cuts that will follow. Markets are pricing the June cut at 19bp and 84bp by year end.

FX: USD/JPY jumped immediately after the BoJ announced an end to its negative rate policy and yield curve control. EUR/USD fell below 1.09 ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. AUD/USD dropped after the RBA removed its tightening bias.

Analysis feed

BoJ ends negative interest rate regime (2024)

FAQs

BoJ ends negative interest rate regime? ›

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates this month, ending the country's historic era of negative interest rates. In a 7-2 majority vote, Japan's central bank decided to increase short-term interest rates to 0-0.1%.

What is the interest rate policy of the BOJ? ›

As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at a range of 0-0.1%, which was set just a month ago when it made a historical exit from its massive stimulus programme and negative interest rates.

Did the Bank of Japan end its negative interest rate policy opting for its first hike in 17 years? ›

The Bank of Japan Ends Its Negative Interest Rate Policy, Opting for Its First Hike in 17 Years. March 18, 2024, at 11:50 p.m. TOKYO (AP) — Japan's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate Tuesday for the first time in 17 years, ending a longstanding policy of negative rates meant to boost the economy.

What does the end of Japan's negative interest rate mean in BNN? ›

(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan scrapped the world's last negative interest rate, ending the most aggressive monetary stimulus program in modern history, while also indicating that financial conditions will stay accommodative for now.

What is the negative interest rate on JPY? ›

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) ended its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and raised rates by 10 basis points to a range of 0.0%–0.1% on March 19, 2024. This decision signals policymakers' confidence in their deflation fight.

Why did Japan end its negative interest rate policy? ›

Extremely strong results in this spring wage negotiations were more than enough for BOJ to exit from negative interest rates. At the same time, however, they could materialise upside risks of higher inflation in service sectors, earlier than BOJ currently anticipates.

When did BOJ start negative interest rates? ›

The BoJ started its negative interest rate policy in 2016 to prevent a stronger yen from damaging the export-oriented economy, and to fight deflation, though after significant wage increases at large companies, the bank decided to end the policy.

Why isn t Japan increasing interest rates? ›

The Japanese government might have a tougher time of things, because higher interest rates will raise the cost of servicing existing and future bonds. That's particularly bad news considering the country's chunky debt load, which, at more than twice the size of the economy, is the world's heaviest.

When was the last time BOJ raised interest rates? ›

Japan's central bank raised interest rates on Tuesday for the first time since 2007, ending the world's only negative rates regime and other unconventional policy easing measures enacted over the course of the last few decades to combat deflation.

What is a negative interest rate policy? ›

Key Takeaways. Negative interest rates are a form of monetary policy that sees interest rates fall below 0%. Central banks and regulators use this unusual policy tool when there are strong signs of deflation. Borrowers are credited interest instead of paying interest to lenders in a negative interest rate environment.

Did BOJ end the era of negative rates with few clues on further hikes? ›

- End of negative rates: BoJ has raised the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to 0-0.1%, in line with market expectations. This marks the first rate hike since 2007, officially ending the era of negative interest rates that lasted for 8 years.

Why is BOJ raising rates? ›

Chiyuki Takamatsu, chief economist at f*ckoku Mutual Life Insurance, said the BOJ will be inclined to raise rates in July as consumers' price expectations increase. "Along with a foreseeable 5%-plus wage hike in large companies, the BOJ will have more confidence for the achievement of its price target," Takamatsu said.

Why invest in negative interest rates? ›

Negative central bank rates push down short-term rates on other types of lending, which in turn influence business and consumer rates. Negative rates also spur banks and other investors seeking yield to buy short-term government debt, pushing up prices and lowering yields on these securities.

Which country has a negative interest rate? ›

Switzerland. Switzerland has one of the lowest interest rate policies of any country in the world, set at -0.75% for commercial banks who store their money with the central bank – the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

Why has JPY been so weak? ›

With low interest rates seen as a key factor in the rapid decline of the yen, last month the BOJ ended its policy of keeping its benchmark interest rate below zero, lifting its short-term policy rate from -0.1% to between zero and 0.1%. After that decision, markets were then focused on the pace of further rate rises.

Why is the Japanese yen so weak? ›

The value of a country's currency rises and falls relative to currencies elsewhere in line with the laws of supply and demand. At the moment, investors are being driven to offload the yen due to a yawning gulf in interest rates between Japan and the United States.

What is the new monetary policy of the BOJ? ›

The BOJ decided to guide overnight lending rates to 0%-0.1%, up a fraction from minus 0.1%-0%. Raising its benchmark for the first time in 17 years, the central bank has become the last major monetary authority to ditch a policy of negative interest rates -- first implemented in Japan in 2016.

What is the interest rate policy? ›

The policy interest rate is an interest rate that a country's monetary authority (i.e. the central bank) sets in order to influence the evolution of the main monetary variables in the economy (e.g. consumer prices, exchange rates or credit expansion, among others).

What is the main policy rate in Japan? ›

The central bank policy rate in Japan rose to 0.05 percent in March 2024. This was the first interest rate hike in 17 years. From March 21, 2024 onwards, the Bank of Japan encourages the uncollaterized overnight call rate to remain between 0.0 and 0.1 percent.

What happens if BOJ raises rates? ›

The BOJ's move will increase government borrowing costs, making it harder to counter economic shocks with debt-fueled stimulus measures.

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