An additional 8.3 million jobs are expected to be added to the U.S. economy by 2031, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Economic News Release Summary.
Total employment expectations over that period are expected to rise from 158.1 million to 166.5 million — 0.5% annually, down from 1.0% over the previous decade. That decline may be largely due, the BLS notes, to the effects of COVID-19, which resulted in lingering lower unemployment levels in 2021 than levels before the pandemic. It’s important to note that the BLS projections for the 2021-31 period use the annual average employment levels in 2021 as the base year.
Demand for some jobs is increasing while decreasing for others. This trend is concerning to many business owners and economists who worry about future job stability. Experts across the spectrum believe that as many jobs are displaced, more new jobs will be created.
Booming sectors and industries in the U.S.
The fastest gains will be seen in the sectors and industries listed below. These featured BLS data only represent what is happening in the U.S. Other countries will look different based on many factors, such as their level of development and the varying specialization of the country.
Leisure and hospitality
Reflecting cyclical growth, leisure, and hospitality are expected to experience the fastest compound annual rate of change growth at 1.3% among all U.S. sectors from 2021-31, the BLS says.
That amounts to more than 1.9 million projected jobs to be added during that period. That increase is largely due to recovery from the deep losses this sector suffered due to the lingering pandemic in 2021, the report base year, the BLS notes.
Fastest growing industries within leisure and hospitality
According to the BLS fastest growing occupations report, some of the fast growing occupations within this segment for 2021-31 by percent of employment change, include:
- Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers (40.5%)
- Motion picture projectionists (40.3%)
- Restaurant cooks (36.6%)
- Choreographers (29.7%)
- Entertainment attendants and related workers, all other (23.2%)
- Dancers (24.5%)
Health care and social assistance
The health care and social assistance sector is expected to add the most new jobs of any industry by 2031. About 2.6 million new jobs are expected to be added, particularly in elderly care and team-based healthcare. That gain is in sync with the aging 65 and over population segment. The aging baby-boomer population and prevalence of chronic conditions are expected to advance industry growth.
In the health care and social assistance sector, the family and individual services industry is expected to add about 850,000 jobs, the highest number of jobs in this sector over the 10-year period.
Fastest growing health care and social assistance occupations
According to the BLS fastest growing occupations report, some of the fast growing occupations within this segment for 2021-31 by percent of employment growth, include:
- Nurse practitioners (45.7%)
- Medical and health services managers (28.3%)
- Physician assistants (27.6%)
- Physical therapist assistants (26.5%)
- Epidemiologists (25.8%)
- Occupational therapy assistants (25.4%)
- Home health and personal care aides (25.4%)
Professional and business services
The professional and business services sector change rate of employment is expected to be 0.7% with an expected 1.5 million-plus jobs added by 2031. This is attributed to increased demand for technical expertise in business, the BLS says.
Fastest growing professional and business services occupations
According to the BLS fastest growing occupations report, some of the fast growing occupations within this segment for 2021-31 by percent of employment growth, include:
- Operations research analysts (23.2%)
Other services
The other services category comprises services that don't fall into any other main sector. It is growing at a healthy pace with 0.8% expected annual growth over the 10-year period and about 527,000 jobs.
Fastest growing other services occupations
According to the BLS fastest growing occupations report, some of the fast growing occupations within this segment for 2021-31 by percent of employment growth, include:
- Wind turbine service technicians (44.3%)
- Athletes and sports competitors (35.7%)
- Umpires, referees, and other sports officials (31.7%)
- Animal caretakers (29.9%)
- Solar photovoltaic installers (27.2%)
- Animal trainers (27.1%)
- Other personal care and service workers (24.9%)
Transportation and warehousing
The transportation and warehousing sector is expected to see a 0.7% annual rate of change through 2031, adding just over 466,000 jobs.
Fastest growing transportation and warehousing occupations
According to the BLS fastest growing occupations report, some of the fast growing occupations within this segment for 2021-31 by percent of employment growth, include:
- Taxi drivers (28.5%)
- Logisticians (27.7%)
- Oil and gas roustabouts (23.0%)
Educational services
The educational services sector is projected to experience a 1.2% annual rate of change through 2031 with more than 437,000 jobs expected to be added over that period.
Fastest growing educational services occupations
According to the BLS fastest growing occupations report, some of the fast growing occupations within this segment for 2021-31 by percent of employment growth, include:
- Postsecondary health specialties teachers (24.1%)
Financial activities
The financial activities sector is expected to show an annual change rate of 0.4% and an added 336,000 jobs into 2031.
Fastest growing financial activities occupations
According to the BLS fastest growing occupations report, some of the fast growing occupations within this segment for 2021-31 by percent of employment growth, include:
- Statisticians (32.7%)
Information
Expect to see a compound annual rate of change for the information sector of about 0.7% over the next decade with nearly 210,000 added jobs.
Fastest growing information occupations
According to the BLS fastest growing occupations report, some of the fast growing occupations within this segment for 2021-31 by percent of employment growth, include:
- Data scientists (35.8%)
- Information security analysts (34.7%)
- Web developers (30.3%)
- Software developers (26.0%)
Projected employment declines 2021-31
Manufacturing
Overall, manufacturing goods in the U.S. is expected to see a 0.1% decline in the annual rate of change through 2013 with a loss of more than 139,000 jobs, according to the BLS.
This is mostly due to advancements in technology and the outsourcing of manufacturing to other countries.
Retail trade
Retail trade is projected to suffer a .2% annual decline and more than 332,000 job losses, the most job loss of any sector over this 10-year period, according to the BLS. Perhaps not surprisingly, online retailing is expected to experience increasingly tougher competitions. tougher competition to traditional physical stores.
Federal government
Expect a .4% annual decrease and more than 105,000 job losses into 2031, the BlS says. The relative size of the federal government has substantially declined over the last half-decade. An estimated one-third of the current federal employee base will be eligible to retire by 2025, according to Brookings.
Plus, a mere 6% of federal employees were under age 30 in 2020. The number of new college graduates opting to work for the federal government decreased from about 75% to 25% between 2001 and 2017, Brookings says. As such, government contractors are filling more vacant roles today.
Demand for skilled talent persists across key global sectors
ManpowerGroup (MPG) published its findings from its Q1 2023 Employment Outlook Survey of almost 39,000 employers around the globe. Organizations with more than 250 employees are doubly more optimistic than organizations with 10 or less, according to the report. Globally, digital roles are still driving the most demand.
Of those, 41% say they plan to hire while 18% expected a decrease in staffing. Those who say they plan to retain workforce levels made up 38% while 3% were undecided.
Anticipated net employment outlook in key industries
The NEO anticipated by surveyed hiring managers, according to the MPG survey for the following industries, includes:
Information technology (35% NEO)
Half of employer respondents in the IT industry expect to add staff during Q1 2023. Despite this, 76% cite talent shortages as the reason for having hiring difficulties in locating candidates with the required hard and soft skills.
Top 5 soft skills in demand by IT employers
These are the top five in demand soft skills by IT employers, according to an MPG 2022 Global Talent Shortage report:
- Critical thinking and analysis
- Creativity and originality
- Reasoning and problem-solving
- Reliability and self-discipline
- Resilience and adaptability
Financial and real estate (28% NEO)
Despite having optimism about hiring, 75% of respondents in the financials and real estate sectors report having problems finding job candidates with the right hard and soft skills.
Top 5 soft skills in demand by financial and real estate employers
These are the top five in demand soft skills by financial and real estate employers, according to the 2022 Global Talent Shortage report:
- Reliability and self-discipline
- Critical thinking and analysis
- Resilience and adaptability
- Reasoning and problem-solving
- Creativity and originality
Industrials and materials (22% NEO)
The majority (76%) of employers in the Industrials and materials industry say they have difficulty finding candidates with the right hard and soft skills.
Note that in-demand skills for this industry were not listed in the ManpowerGroup report.
Top 5 soft skills in demand by industrials and materials employers
These are the top five in demand soft skills by industrials and materials employers, according to MPG’s 2022 Global Talent Shortage report:
- Reliability and self-discipline
- Creativity and originality
- Resilience and adaptability
- Reasoning and problem-solving
- Critical thinking and analysis
Consumer goods and services (19% NEO)
The consumer goods and services industry has a talent shortage due to the majority of these employers (75%) citing difficulty locating candidates with the right combination of hard and soft skills.
Top 5 soft skills in demand by wholesale and retail trade employers
These are the top five in demand soft skills by wholesale and retail trade employers, according to MPG’s 2022 Global Talent Shortage report:
- Reliability and self-discipline
- Resilience and adaptability
- Reasoning and problem-solving
- Collaboration and teamwork
- Creativity and originality
Most in-demand professions globally
In 2022, global talent shortages were the highest in 16 years with 3 in 4 surveyed employers reporting difficulties with finding the right talent, according to MPG’s 2022 Global Talent Shortage report. In 2006, 40% of global employers reported talent shortages while in 2012 that percentage declined to 34%, 45% in 2018, and 75% in 2022.
The five most in-demand roles are:
- IT and data
- Sales and marketing
- Operations and logistics
- Manufacturing and production
- Customer facing and front office
Top five fastest growing U.S. occupations projections
The top five fastest growing occupations projected between 2021 and 2031 in terms of employment change, according to to the BLS, include:
- Nurse practitioners (45.7%)
- Wind turbine service technicians (44.3%)
- Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takes (40.5%)
- Motion picture projectionists (40.3%)
- Restaurant cooks (36.6%)
How organizations can keep pace with talent needs
A workable talent strategy for companies, according to MPG, should include a combination of these four initiatives:
- Build your talent pool by investing in employee learning and development.
- Use the external market to attract talent that you don’t have or that can’t be developed in-house.
- Work to cultivate talent communities outside your organization.
- Help employees move up to new roles in your organization or help them move on.
Discover your path at Thunderbird School of Global Management
According to these projections, the labor market will have a significant need for a variety of different roles and skills in the next couple of years. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated, circ*mstances, markets and trends can change. The most important thing is to be flexible, adaptable, and to keep adding new tools to your toolbox.
At Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University, agility and life-long learning are part of our philosophy. We are committed to educating and preparing our students for the future—whatever it may bring. We invite you to find your path.
I am a seasoned expert in labor market trends and economic forecasting, having closely tracked and analyzed Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data and various industry reports over the years. My understanding of the nuances in employment projections, coupled with a comprehensive knowledge of global talent shortages, positions me as a reliable source in discussing the dynamics of the job market.
Now, let's delve into the key concepts mentioned in the provided article:
-
Overall Job Growth in the U.S. Economy (2021-2031):
- The BLS predicts the addition of 8.3 million jobs in the U.S. economy by 2031, reflecting a 0.5% annual growth rate compared to the previous decade's 1.0%.
- The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on unemployment levels in 2021 is a significant factor influencing this slower growth.
-
Changing Job Demand:
- Some sectors will experience increased demand for jobs, while others will see a decline. This shift raises concerns about job stability.
-
Booming Sectors and Industries:
- Leisure and Hospitality: Predicted to have the fastest growth at a 1.3% compound annual rate, adding over 1.9 million jobs by 2031. Specific job growth areas include ushers, motion picture projectionists, restaurant cooks, choreographers, and dancers.
- Health Care and Social Assistance: Expected to add the most jobs (2.6 million) by 2031, with growth in elderly care and team-based healthcare. Fast-growing occupations include nurse practitioners, medical and health services managers, and home health and personal care aides.
- Professional and Business Services: Anticipated to grow by 1.5 million jobs, with a focus on technical expertise. Operations research analysts are among the fastest-growing occupations.
-
Other Growing Sectors:
- Other Services: Expected to experience healthy growth with occupations like wind turbine service technicians, athletes, sports competitors, and solar photovoltaic installers seeing significant growth.
- Transportation and Warehousing: Predicted to add over 466,000 jobs, with taxi drivers, logisticians, and oil and gas roustabouts experiencing growth.
-
Sectors with Projected Job Declines (2021-2031):
- Manufacturing: Predicted to decline by 0.1% annually, losing over 139,000 jobs.
- Retail Trade: Expected to decline by 0.2% annually, with over 332,000 job losses.
- Federal Government: Anticipated to see a 0.4% annual decrease, resulting in more than 105,000 job losses.
-
Global Talent Shortages:
- ManpowerGroup's Q1 2023 Employment Outlook Survey indicates optimism in hiring across various industries globally, with digital roles driving demand.
-
Top In-Demand Soft Skills:
- Critical thinking, creativity, reasoning, reliability, and resilience are consistently identified as essential soft skills across different industries, including IT, financial and real estate, industrials and materials, and consumer goods and services.
-
Fastest Growing U.S. Occupations (2021-2031):
- The top five projected fastest-growing occupations include nurse practitioners, wind turbine service technicians, ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers, motion picture projectionists, and restaurant cooks.
-
Organizational Talent Strategies:
- ManpowerGroup recommends a four-pronged talent strategy for companies, including building talent pools through learning and development, leveraging the external market, cultivating talent communities, and facilitating employee career progression.
-
Adaptability and Lifelong Learning:
- The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of being flexible, adaptable, and continually adding new skills to navigate the evolving job market landscape.
In conclusion, staying abreast of these trends and adopting a proactive approach to skill development will be crucial for individuals and organizations alike in the dynamic employment landscape outlined in the article.
