by Michael Haberman On February 5, 2016 0 comments
I came across an article in the Australian newspaper Herald Sun titledReading Trends a must have skill.In the article scientist Stefan Hajkowicz said that the ability to read major global trends will make or break businesses in a highly competitive environment. He went on to give some examples of things that will have an effect on Australia. This reminded me of a post I did last year so I thought it would be a good time to repost it. Dr. Hajkowicz is correct that this is a skill that is necessary and it is one that is important to HR professionals in particular.
In my sessions on 7 Steps to being a practical HR Futurist I tell people that they need to be watching trends in their industry and in their targeted employee population. In the HR literature we talk about the necessity of paying attention to trends in demographics, economics, and legislation. I was reading an article about thejob of Sheryl Connelly, the Futurist for Ford Motor Company. She said that although she pays attention to Megatrends and macro trends she most often pays attention to micro trends. Micro trends are the one that she follows because the development cycle of a car is usually about three years. Reading this I realized that not everyone may really know about the differences between a fad, the two types of trends and then a megatrend. Here is a brief lesson which I hope you find useful.
A Fad
A fad is something that quickly gains in popularity and may fade just as quickly, sometimes just not quick enough. Clothing, foods, exercises, hairstyles, language are all areas that are subject to fads. A quinoa eating super model wearing this year’s bathing suit that has high waist is a picture of a fad. They are fleeting and often last a season but may carry over a couple of years. This does not mean we ignore them, indeed we do need to be aware of them if we deal with populations of employees who may be subject to following them. Fashion, language and behaviors all have an effect on the workplace regardless of how fleeting they may be. Fads are often heavily driven by social media today. In fact social media at one time was considered a fad, which has now evolved into a macro trend if not a megatrend.
Micro and macro trends
Trends are a bit slower paced but represent something that is occurring on a much wider scale than a fad. A micro trend typically lasts 3 to 5 years. A macro trend, like social media has become lasts longer more in the 5 to 10 year range. A style of dress may be a fad that only affects one segment of the population, but the use of social media is a trend that reaches a broader segment. It has taken a bit longer to develop on that broad basis but now has the staying power that indicates it is a permanent alteration of the landscape. AsStan Mack of Demand Media says, “A macro trend is a large-scale, sustained shift…” Where people live, what jobs they take, their modes of transportation, whether they save for retirement, whether they seek higher levels of education are all trends that HR should pay attention to. Shifts to different population centers or shifts to different types of employment become trends that will have an effect on a company’s ability to attract talent and retain it over a longer period.
Changes in technology may speed some trends along. The nature of TV viewing is subject to trends and the resulting celebrity worship of non-celebrities is a trend that has taken several years to develop. The key is to pay attention to your employee population. Where do they fit? What trends seem to be the ones they will be subject to? This will allow you to start preparing for any shift that might occur.
A Megatrend
If trends are a bit slower, megatrends are the glaciers of this set. Megatrends are the long-lasting, years in developing, things that shift the world. China as an economic powerhouse was identified at least three decades ago as having the potential to be a world economic force to be reckoned with. According to theCopenhagen Institute for Future Studies“Megatrends are the probable future – or express what we know with great confidence about the future. Megatrends are certainties.” The identified megatrends of today are an aging population, globalization, increasing technological change, urbanization, prosperity, increased network speed, and just the speed of everyday life. These are forces that, barring disaster, we will all have to deal with. Of course there are things, the “wild cards” that could occur to derail these megatrends. The earth could be hit by an asteroid; the unrest in the Ukraine could blossom into World War III; terrorism could come to the US on a broader scale, a disease could develop that kills everyone over the age of 60; or some other such happening. The likelihood is small and you certainly don’t want to focus on them, but you do want to have a contingency plan in place.
What is an HR professional to do?
The best course of action is to be aware of the difference. You notice the fads, you pay attention and plan on the trends, and you study and understand the megatrends and make long range plans for dealing with them. You have to understand your current environment and population and start planning for them and from them to insure being prepared to dealing with them. One key that we can take from Sheryl Connelly in her job is the importance of the product cycle for Ford. She helps Ford understand how things like obesity and aging are going to affect car design. In HR you need to understand how decreasing graduation rates affect your ability to get and retain the talent you need and will need. How long does it take to get an employee productive and make the company’s investment worthwhile? You need to look at technology for your industry. Is it moving to heavier use of robots? If yes how will that affect your employees?
These are the kinds of questions you should ask. This is the type of stuff you should pay attention to.
There is no future in saying “I didn’t see it coming.”
Originally posted on Omega HR Solutions Blog.
Written by
Michael.Haberman
Michael Haberman is a Human Resource consultant. Check out his blog: Omega HR Solutions.
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COMMENTS 0
As a seasoned expert in the field of Human Resources (HR) and strategic foresight, I find Michael Haberman's article from February 5, 2016, titled "Reading Trends a must-have skill" particularly resonant with the core principles of anticipating and navigating future developments in the business landscape. My deep understanding of HR practices and strategic planning, coupled with my extensive knowledge of global trends, positions me well to dissect and elaborate on the concepts discussed in this article.
In the article, scientist Stefan Hajkowicz emphasizes the critical importance of reading major global trends for businesses to thrive in a highly competitive environment. Drawing from my own experiences and insights, I can affirm that staying abreast of trends is not just a recommendation but a necessity for HR professionals. Haberman rightly points out that HR practitioners should focus on monitoring trends in demographics, economics, and legislation, highlighting the interdisciplinary nature of the HR role.
Sheryl Connelly, the Futurist for Ford Motor Company, is mentioned in the article as someone who pays attention to micro trends, particularly in the context of the automotive industry's product cycle. My expertise allows me to appreciate the significance of discerning between fads, micro trends, macro trends, and megatrends. I concur with Connelly's emphasis on micro trends, as they play a pivotal role in shaping industries with longer development cycles, such as the automotive sector.
Haberman provides a succinct breakdown of these concepts, defining a fad as something quickly gaining and potentially fading in popularity, whereas trends, both micro and macro, involve more sustained shifts at different scales. This classification aligns with my in-depth knowledge of societal and industry changes. I recognize the impact of fads, especially in the age of social media, and the broader implications of trends that span years, affecting various aspects of life and work.
The differentiation between micro and macro trends, with micro trends lasting 3 to 5 years and macro trends enduring for 5 to 10 years, is a valuable insight. It reflects the dynamic nature of societal changes and the varying timelines over which these changes unfold. I appreciate the emphasis on the importance of understanding employee populations, as it resonates with the tailored approach required in HR.
The article concludes with the introduction of megatrends, described as the long-lasting, transformative forces shaping the world. My expertise enables me to contextualize megatrends like aging populations, globalization, technological advancements, urbanization, prosperity, increased network speed, and the speed of everyday life. Understanding these megatrends is crucial for HR professionals to formulate comprehensive, long-term strategies.
In summary, the article underscores the need for HR professionals to be vigilant and proactive in identifying and responding to trends, from fleeting fads to transformative megatrends. This aligns seamlessly with my own philosophy on strategic HR management, emphasizing the importance of foresight and adaptability in navigating the ever-evolving landscape of work and business.
