Global Ecommerce Sales Growth (2021–2027) [Dec 2023 Update] (2024)

The global ecommerce growth rate for 2024 is forecast at 9.4%, bringing global ecommerce sales worldwide to $6.3 trillion.

According to experts’ forecasts, global ecommerce sales growth is set to continue, and at a relatively steady pace. Ecommerce’s growth rate worldwide is expected to decelerate slightly to 8.6% in 2025 and 2026, which will bring total ecommerce sales to $6.9 trillion and $7.5 trillion, respectively. In 2027, global ecommerce sales growth is expected at 7.6% as overall sales surpass $8 trillion for the very first time.

From 2021 to 2027, the largest annual online retail growth took place in 2021, and the smallest is set to happen in 2027. Experts predict that in this period, total sales will increase by more than $3 trillion. This is an overall rise of 61.1% and marks an average annual growth rate of 8.3%.

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Ecommerce sales growth vs. retail sales growth

Global ecommerce sales growth is set to outpace that of retail sales every year from 2023 to 2027—an indication of shoppers’ preference for online shopping.

In 2024, total retail sales worldwide is expected to rise to $31.1 trillion, marking an increase of 4.9% from 2023. This is 4.5 percentage points lower than the global ecommerce sales growth rate.

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Ecommerce sales growth: ranked by country

As a seasoned expert in the field of global e-commerce trends and statistics, I've closely monitored the industry's trajectory, keeping abreast of the latest data, reports, and analyses. My expertise is grounded in a comprehensive understanding of economic indicators, market dynamics, and technological advancements that shape the e-commerce landscape.

Now, delving into the provided information on the global e-commerce growth projections for 2024 and beyond, there are several key concepts and insights that stand out:

1. Global E-commerce Growth Forecast:

   • The forecast for the global e-commerce growth rate in 2024 is an impressive 9.4%, with sales reaching a substantial $6.3 trillion worldwide. This figure underscores the remarkable expansion of the e-commerce sector on a global scale.

2. Continued Growth and Deceleration:

   • Forecasts suggest that the growth momentum will persist, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Projections for 2025 and 2026 indicate a deceleration to 8.6%, bringing total e-commerce sales to $6.9 trillion and $7.5 trillion, respectively. In 2027, the growth rate is expected to be 7.6%, crossing the significant $8 trillion mark.

3. Historical and Projected Annual Growth:

   • From 2021 to 2027, the e-commerce sector is anticipated to witness substantial growth, with the largest annual increase occurring in 2021. The growth is set to taper off gradually, with 2027 experiencing the smallest growth in this period. The overall rise in total sales during this timeframe is an impressive $3 trillion, marking a 61.1% increase with an average annual growth rate of 8.3%.

4. E-commerce vs. Retail Sales Growth:

   • Notably, the growth rate of global e-commerce sales is projected to outpace that of retail sales consistently from 2023 to 2027. This divergence highlights the increasing preference of shoppers for online platforms.

5. Global Retail Sales Projections:

   • In contrast to e-commerce, total retail sales worldwide are expected to rise to $31.1 trillion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 4.9% from the previous year. However, this growth rate is significantly lower, by 4.5 percentage points, compared to the global e-commerce sales growth rate.

6. E-commerce Growth by Country:

   • Analyzing the e-commerce growth rates by country, the Philippines emerges as the leader in 2023, experiencing a remarkable 24.1% year-on-year increase in online purchases. India follows closely with a growth rate of 22.3%. Other notable countries with substantial e-commerce growth include Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.

7. Regional Trends:

   • The data highlights a concentration of high-growth e-commerce countries in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia. The growing reliance on online shopping in this region presents significant opportunities for aspiring e-commerce entrepreneurs.

8. Global Ranking of E-commerce Growth:

   • The top 10 countries with notable e-commerce growth include two South American nations, Mexico and Argentina, as well as Vietnam and South Korea, showcasing the global nature of the e-commerce boom.

In conclusion, the global e-commerce landscape is evolving rapidly, with diverse regional patterns and a sustained upward trajectory. These insights provide valuable context for businesses and entrepreneurs looking to navigate and capitalize on the dynamic world of online commerce.