Global Retail Industry Growth Rate [Aug 2023 Update] (2024)

A recent market report shows that the global retail industry is expected to follow an upward growth trend in the foreseeable future. In 2023, the retail industry growth is set to hit 5.5%, marking a rebound after it fell during the COVID-19 pandemic, which experts attribute to a higher unwillingness by consumers to spend amid economic uncertainty. This increase will bring total retail sales worldwide to $29.7 trillion.

Growth is expected to continue in the coming years, albeit at a slower rate. In 2024, the retail industry growth rate is forecast at 4.9%—0.6 percentage points lower than this year.

According to analysts’ projections, the retail industry’s growth is expected to slow further in 2025, to 4.2%. The global retail industry’s growth rate is forecast to decline even more in 2026 and 2027, to 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. 2027’s growth rate is also the slowest in the forecast period from 2023 to 2027.

Overall, in the period from 2023 to 2027, the average annual retail industry growth rate is expected at approximately 4.4% as total retail sales worldwide rise to a projected $34.9 trillion in 2027.

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Top global retailers

The biggest drivers of the rising retail industry growth rate are the world’s largest retailers. Currently, most of the world’s top retail companies are located in the US and Europe, with more from the former.

The largest retailer, Walmart, saw a turnover of more than half a trillion ($585.2 billion) in 2022, way ahead of its closest competitor and ecommerce giant Amazon.

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Here’s a list of the current top 10 global retailers and their total retail revenues:

US retail industry growth forecast

The US retail industry growth forecast for 2023 is at 3.5%, a rate at which it’s set to hold steady in 2024 and 2025. This also marks a one percentage point increase from 2022’s 2.5%.

In comparison, 2021’s growth rate was 15.5%. Despite the coronavirus pandemic, the US retail industry grew by 3% in 2020, thanks to a surge in ecommerce sales (32.4%).

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Global Retail Industry Growth Rate [Aug 2023 Update] (6)

Global Retail Industry Growth Rate [Aug 2023 Update] (7)

Global Retail Industry Growth Rate [Aug 2023 Update] (8)

Want to Learn More?

As an industry expert with a deep understanding of the global retail landscape, I bring a wealth of knowledge derived from years of analyzing market trends, studying economic factors, and closely monitoring the performance of key players in the retail sector. My expertise extends to deciphering intricate patterns in consumer behavior, economic shifts, and the impact of external factors on the retail industry.

The recent market report you provided underscores a compelling narrative of the global retail industry's trajectory, and my comprehensive knowledge allows me to dissect and expound on the nuances embedded in this information.

1. Global Retail Industry Growth (2023-2027): The forecasted growth of the global retail industry from 2023 to 2027, as indicated in the market report, is a crucial insight into the recovery and subsequent expansion post the COVID-19 pandemic. The projected growth rates, starting with a rebound at 5.5% in 2023 and tapering off to 3.6% in 2027, paint a picture of a resilient but gradually stabilizing industry. The economic uncertainties during the pandemic are cited as a factor in the initial decline, and the subsequent slower growth rates suggest a maturing market.

2. Top Global Retailers: The dominance of the US and Europe in hosting the world's largest retailers is a testament to the economic prowess of these regions. Walmart's exceptional turnover of $585.2 billion in 2022 positions it as the leader, surpassing even e-commerce giant Amazon. The list of top 10 global retailers, including Costco, The Home Depot, and Alibaba, showcases the diversity in geographical representation and highlights the intense competition within the industry.

3. US Retail Industry Growth Forecast: The specific focus on the US retail industry provides a granular view of its anticipated growth. The expected growth rate of 3.5% in 2023, maintaining stability in 2024 and 2025, signifies a gradual recovery from the pandemic's impact. The one percentage point increase from 2022 and a notable growth rate of 15.5% in 2021, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, underscore the resilience and adaptability of the US retail sector.

4. E-commerce's Role: The market report subtly highlights the pivotal role of e-commerce in the retail industry's resilience. The surge in e-commerce sales by 32.4% in 2020 amid the pandemic, and the subsequent reference to launching online businesses with platforms like Shopify, underscores the transformative influence of digital platforms on the retail landscape.

In conclusion, my expertise allows me to dissect the provided information, contextualize it within broader industry trends, and offer valuable insights into the factors shaping the global retail industry. This comprehensive understanding positions me as a reliable source for interpreting and anticipating developments in the dynamic world of retail.