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Newsletter
The Morning
Claims that the U.S. is in the middle of a retail theft wave are exaggerated.
By German Lopez
Is the U.S. in the middle of a shoplifting wave? Target and other retail chains have warned of widespread theft. News outlets have amplified the story. On social media, people have posted videos of thieves looting stores.
But the increase in shoplifting appears to be limited to a few cities, rather than being truly national. In most of the country, retail theft has been lower this year than it was a few years ago, according to police data. There are some exceptions, particularly New York City, where shoplifting has spiked. But outside New York, shoplifting incidents in major cities have fallen 7 percent since 2019, before the Covid pandemic.
Why has the issue nonetheless received so much attention? Today’s newsletter tries to answer that question while taking a deeper look at recent shoplifting trends.
The data
The various sources of crime data — from government agencies and private groups — tell a consistent story. Retail theft has not spiked nationwide in the past several years. If anything, it appears less common in most of the country than it was before the pandemic.
The most up-to-date source is the shoplifting report published this month by the Council on Criminal Justice, which uses police data through the first half of 2023. The other sources go through only 2022.
The council tracks 24 major U.S. cities. Overall, shoplifting incidents were 16 percent higher in the first half of 2023 than the first half of 2019. When New York City is excluded, however, reported shoplifting incidents fell over the same time period. Out of the 24 cities, 17 reported decreases in shoplifting.
Average Monthly Shoplifting Rates in the U.S.
A chart shows the average monthly shoplifting rates in the United States since January 2018. As of June 2023, the rate was about 39 incidents per 100,000 people, compared with 45 per 100,000 in June 2019.
50 incidents per 100,000 people
June
2019
45.1
40
June
2023
38.6
30
20
10
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
50 incidents per 100,000 people
June 2019
45.1
40
30
20
10
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Annual Murder Rates in the U.S.
A chart that shows the annual murder rates in the U.S. since 1990.
10 murders per 100,000 people
8
6
2023
(estimated)
5.6
2019
5.1
4
2
1990
2000
2010
2020
10 murders per 100,000 people
8
6
2023
(estimated)
5.6
2019
5.1
4
2
1990
2000
2010
2020
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