New high-end estimate of sea-level rise projections in 2100 and 2300 - Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (2024)

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New high-end estimate of sea-level rise projections in 2100 and 2300 - Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research? ›

5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300.

In the future, scientists expect Greenland and Antarctica will contribute larger amounts. By 2100, the latest estimates of sea level rise contributions from Greenland and Antarctica sum up to about 1 meter (about 3 feet), but totals may be as high as 2 meters (over 6 feet).

In the best case scenario, under SSP1-2.6 with no ice sheet acceleration after 2100, the estimate was only 0.8–2.0 metres (2.6–6.6 ft). In the worst estimated scenario, SSP-8.5 with a marine ice cliff instability scenario, the projected range for total sea level rise was 9.5–16.2 metres (31–53 ft) by the year 2300.

The Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) finds that global mean sea levels will most likely rise between 0.95 feet (0.29m) and 3.61 feet (1.1m) by the end of this century.

By 2100, the average U.S. temperature is projected to increase by about 3°F to 12°F, depending on emissions scenario and climate model.

According to a study cited by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, five nations (the Maldives, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands, Nauru and Kiribati) may become uninhabitable by 2100, creating 600,000 stateless climate refugees. It is an unprecedented situation.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates there will be between 43 and 84 centimeters (1.4 and 2.8 feet) of sea level rise by the year 2100, but said that an increase of 2 meters (6.6 feet) "cannot be ruled out."

Storms and sudden inundation from rising seas pose a physical danger to those caught in their path. Health effects include increases in water-borne illness from contaminated drinking water supplies, complications of existing diseases, and increases in respiratory diseases due to mold from flooding.

In urban settings along coastlines around the world, rising seas threaten infrastructure necessary for local jobs and regional industries. Roads, bridges, subways, water supplies, oil and gas wells, power plants, sewage treatment plants, landfills—the list is practically endless—are all at risk from sea level rise.

The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expansion caused by warming of the ocean (since water expands as it warms) and increased melting of land-based ice, such as glaciers and ice sheets.

Should we worry about rising sea levels? ›

If the planet surpasses 1.5–2°C of warming, irreversible impacts such as melting ice and sea level rise will significantly impact human and environmental sustainability.

Hot spots include the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast, Asia, and islands. The risk comes not only from rising sea levels due to ice-melt, and the expansion of ocean water as it warms, but to increasing storm surges and high-tide flooding.

However, due to lag effects in ocean warming and ice melt, sea level will continue to rise for centuries. Rise can theoretically be reduced by negative carbon emissions or geoengineering.

India will continue to be one of the worst affected countries, with the largest population exposed to extreme heat, followed by Nigeria, Indonesia, the Philippines and Pakistan. Even places that remain on the cooler side of the projected warming would be subject to more heatwaves and droughts.

Temperatures will be dangerously hot in more places and at more times than ever before. Less of Earth will be as agreeably habitable as in the past. Ecosystems and our relationships with ecosystems will continue to change, creating even more insecurity on the planet.

Roughly 1.3 billion years from now, "humans will not be able to physiologically survive, in nature, on Earth" due to sustained hot and humid conditions. In about 2 billion years, the oceans may evaporate when the sun's luminosity is nearly 20% more than it is now, Kopparapu said.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a low-emissions scenario could elevate global sea levels about half a meter (1.6 ft) above present levels by 2100, while a higher-emissions scenario could lead to a 2-m (6.6-ft) rise. By 2150, sea levels could be 5 m (16.4 ft) higher than they are now.

A study, published in Environmental Research Letters, found that the world could already be committed to a sea level rise of 1.1 metres by the year 3000.

By the year 2500, sea level rise is projected to 5.5 meters (upper medium estimate). In the long run, a catastrophic 14 meter rise in sea levels could take place.

How much will sea levels rise in the future? According to existing projections, global mean sea level may rise approximately 0.5 m in 2070, 1m in 2100 and 2-3m in 2300. More than 95% of the ocean surface will be affected and most of the coastlines areas will become vulnerable.