12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET
Wednesday, March 29, 2023
NRF’s State of Retail & the Consumer, held March 29, 2023, explored the health of American consumers and the retail industry with leaders including NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., retail executives from major brands, prominent economists and consumer experts.
NRF 2023 Retail Sales Forecast
At NRF’s State of Retail & the Consumer event, NRF forecasted retail sales to grow between 4%and6%in 2023. In total, NRF projects that retail sales will reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
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The 2023 Consumer: Back to the Future
Explore the full report presented in the event:
Agenda
Welcome
- Matthew Shay, President and CEO, NRF
The 2023 Consumer: Back to the Future
The pandemic brought about seismic shifts in the way U.S. consumers live, work and spend, spurring unprecedented retail demand and acceleratinginnovation. But just three years after the onset of COVID-19 induced shutdowns, retail sales appear to be headed back toward historical growth rates. Supply chain woes are easing and consumers — who never abandoned physical channels — are turning out in force for traditional shopping events. In some ways, consumer behavior and the retail landscape look as they would had the pandemic never happened. All of which begs the question: Is 2023 set to be a replay of pre-pandemic norms?
Nikki Frazer, Director of Retail and Digital Strategy,Strategy&, part of the PwC network (moderator)
- Pashmeena Hilal,Research Manager and Thought Leadership Lead for the Retail Sector, Google
- Jonathan Silver, CEO and Founder, Affinity Solutions
2023 Retail Sales Forecast
- Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., Chief Economist,NRF
2023 Outlook: Making Sense of the Economic Puzzle
Economic conditions for the first half of 2023 look similar to the conditions that prevailed in the fourth quarter of 2022. The U.S. economy is still caught up in a late-stage business cycle expansion that includes ongoing inflation, slowing production and a tightening of monetary and financial conditions. Despite ongoing global uncertainty and rising interest rates, the U.S. labor market has remained resilient. Will the Federal Reserve be able to orchestrate a soft landing in 2023, or will the economy tip into recession? What are the prospects and perspectives for the 2023 economy and its impact on consumers’ ability and willingness to spend?
- Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., Chief Economist, NRF (moderator)
- Kathy Bostjancic, SVP and Chief Economist, Nationwide Mutual
- Gregory Daco, Chief Economist, EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young LLP
Change is Retail’s Normal
With a focus on how change is always“normal” for retailers, this discussion with retail leaders will center on consumer shopping trends and how the past three years have only further prepared retailers to adapt to heightened economic uncertainty. The panel will examine how retailers consistently leverage innovation to meet consumer needs and how retailers are driving customer engagement and retention in today’s competitive landscape while providing exceptional shopping experiences and affordable prices for consumers at all income levels.
- Matthew Shay, President and CEO, NRF (moderator)
- Haio Barbeito, President and CEO, Old Navy
- Anushka Salinas, President and COO, Rent the Runway
Speakers
Haio Barbeito
President and CEO
Old Navy
Kathy Bostjancic
SVP and Chief Economist
Nationwide Mutual
Gregory Daco
Chief Economist
EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young LLP
Nikki Frazer
Director of Retail and Digital Strategy
Strategy&, part of the PwC network
Pashmeena Hilal
Research Manager and Thought Leadership Lead for the Retail Sector
Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
National Retail Federation
Anushka Salinas
President and COO
Rent the Runway
Matthew Shay
President and CEO
National Retail Federation
Jonathan Silver
CEO and Founder
Affinity Solutions
As an expert deeply entrenched in the world of retail, economic analysis, and consumer behavior, my vast experience and in-depth knowledge equip me to dissect and interpret the intricacies of the NRF's State of Retail & the Consumer event held on Wednesday, March 29, 2023.
First and foremost, the event, graced by key figures like NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, and various industry leaders, delved into the pulse of American consumers and the retail sector. Now, let's break down the essential concepts discussed during the event:
NRF 2023 Retail Sales Forecast:
The NRF projected retail sales to grow between 4% and 6% in 2023, anticipating a total retail sales figure ranging between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion. This forecast sets the tone for the economic outlook of the retail industry.
The 2023 Consumer: Back to the Future:
The event explored how the pandemic-induced shifts in consumer behavior, work, and spending are seemingly reverting to pre-pandemic norms. Supply chain challenges are easing, and traditional shopping events are witnessing a resurgence. This prompts the question: Is 2023 poised to be a replay of the past?
2023 Outlook: Making Sense of the Economic Puzzle:
Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., moderated a discussion on the economic conditions for the first half of 2023. Despite ongoing global uncertainty, rising interest rates, and inflation, the U.S. labor market remained resilient. The discussion pondered whether the Federal Reserve could orchestrate a soft landing in 2023 or if the economy would tip into recession.
Change is Retail’s Normal:
Another panel discussed how change is the constant in retail, focusing on consumer shopping trends and how retailers are adapting to heightened economic uncertainty. The conversation highlighted how retailers consistently leverage innovation to meet consumer needs and enhance customer engagement and retention in today's competitive landscape.
Speakers and Participants:
The event featured a lineup of distinguished speakers and participants, including Matthew Shay (President and CEO, NRF), Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D. (Chief Economist, NRF), Haio Barbeito (President and CEO, Old Navy), Kathy Bostjancic (SVP and Chief Economist, Nationwide Mutual), Gregory Daco (Chief Economist, EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young LLP), Nikki Frazer (Director of Retail and Digital Strategy, Strategy&, part of the PwC network), Pashmeena Hilal (Research Manager and Thought Leadership Lead for the Retail Sector, Google), Anushka Salinas (President and COO, Rent the Runway), and Jonathan Silver (CEO and Founder, Affinity Solutions).
In conclusion, the NRF's State of Retail & the Consumer event provided a comprehensive overview of the retail industry's current state, consumer trends, economic conditions, and the adaptability of retailers in the face of change. The insights shared by industry leaders and experts during the event contribute significantly to understanding the dynamics shaping the retail landscape in 2023.
