Interest rates play a pivotal role in shaping the economic landscape, influencing factors such as inflation and financial markets. The Federal Reserve, commonly known as the Fed, serves as the central bank of the US, determining the target for the federal-funds rate. This rate signifies the interest that banks charge each other for overnight loans. The federal-funds rate, in turn, ripples through other interest rates like the 10-year Treasury yield, representing the return on a 10-year government bond, and the 30-year mortgage rate, the average interest rate for a 30-year home loan.
As of December 2023, the Fed's projections indicate to maintain the federal funds rate to 5.25% by the end of 2023, maintaining this level through 2025. However, differing opinions exist regarding the duration of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy and the potential for a shift towards lowering interest rates.
Here's an overview of the current situation, possible scenarios, and expert opinions.
The policymakers expect rates to stay above 5% in 2024 and around 4% by the end of 2025.
Possible Scenarios
Rates Could Go Down
If inflation falls significantly, the Fed might ease its stance and start cutting rates in late 2024 or early 2025.
A severe economic downturn could also force the Fed to lower rates to stimulate borrowing and growth.
Rates Could Stay High
If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed might keep rates elevated throughout 2025.
A stronger-than-expected economy could also lead to continued rate hikes.
Expert Opinions
Some experts believe rates will start falling in 2024-2025, but not as much as markets anticipate.
Others warn that the Fed might keep raising rates into 2025, surprising markets and hurting the economy.
Ultimately, the decision depends on the Fed's assessment of inflation and economic data in the coming months.
Other Forecasts on Interest Rates
One outlook is offered by Trading Economics, a platform specializing in economic data and analysis. According to their predictions based on recent data, Trading Economics anticipates the interest rate to descend to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025. Their forecast suggests that the Fed may need to reduce interest rates in response to a slowdown in economic growth and a decline in inflation.
Another perspective comes from Morningstar, a financial services company offering investment research and advice. Analyst Preston Caldwellcontends that political pressure will mount on the Fed to ease monetary policy as inflation moderates and unemployment rises. He predicts a commencement of interest rate cuts in 2024, bringing them down to 2% by the close of 2025. Caldwell posits that reduced interest rates will contribute to a bolstered economic growth and increased housing demand in 2024 and 2025.
So, will interest rates go down in 2025 in the US? The answer hinges on individual perspectives and assumptions about the economy, inflation, and the Fed's course of action.
While the Fed's own projections suggest sustained high interest rates until 2025, analysts and economists vary in their forecasts, foreseeing the possibility of lower interest rates in 2024 and 2025. As with any forecast, uncertainties and risks persist, underscoring the importance of vigilance and staying informed about potential changes or surprises through continuous monitoring of data and news.
Here are some resources where you can follow the latest developments:
There are no sources for officially projected interest rates in five years, but the Mortgage Bankers Association does predict rates on 30-year mortgages will drop to 5.9% by the end of 2025. Fannie Mae predicts a 6.6% rate.
Here are some predictions for 2025 from key players and industry associations in the mortgage space: Fannie Mae: 6.1% Mortgage Bankers Association: 5.9% National Association of Home Builders: 6.01%
Mortgage rates are currently expected to continue trending down through 2024 and into 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association thinks that 30-year mortgage rates could fall to 5.9% in 2025.
In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.
However, increases should slow between 2024 and 2026, and rates may even decline in 2027. Among the factors that could impact mortgage rates in the next 5 years are inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic growth. Homebuyers should consider locking in a low mortgage rate now, as rates are expected to rise soon.”
“A better tone of inflation data and evidence of slowing economic growth should bring mortgage rates below the 7 percent mark,” says Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst for Bankrate. “Whether they stay below 7 percent is contingent on further easing in inflation pressures.”
Analysts project 11.5% earnings growth and 5.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in 2024. Fortunately, analysts see positive earnings and revenue growth for all eleven market sectors this year.
Over the past two years, a combination of high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and sluggish wage growth has crippled affordability for homebuyers. While many are holding out for mortgage rates to fall, it's unlikely we'll see 2% mortgage rates any time soon. In fact, experts hope we don't.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by the end of 2025. However, recent economic developments have led some forecasters to believe that rates will remain elevated at around 7% for the remainder of this year.
It's the seller basically transferring their own mortgage to the buyer. When they do that, the buyer keeps the rate that the seller had, so if it was 3% or 2.5%, they keep that, and the buyer ends up paying whatever the difference is between the sale price and the mortgage that's been transferred.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Friday is 6.91%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%. While Wells Faro's model expects 5.8%, and the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates 5.5%.
“Mortgage rates will be at least a full 2% lower by 2025.” She adds that if the inflation rate holds at 2%, then we should see mortgage rates remain at lower levels for the balance of the next five years.
If you wanted to drop your interest rate by a full 1%, it may cost up to three to four discount points, (4 x 0.25%) or (3 x . 375) you'd likely end up paying 3–4% in fees of your total loan amount up front. down your rate to 6% from 7%) those three to four points would cost you $12,000 to $16,000 at closing.
The Federal Reserve has indicated it may cut rates later in 2024. Certified financial planner Amy Hubble told CNBC Select she doesn't expect a rate cut until at least September.
The central bank, which aggressively raised rates in 2022 and 2023 to combat a surge in inflation, is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range that was set last July.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
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