Is fixed income market bigger than stock market?
Fixed-income markets include not only publicly traded securities, such as commercial paper, notes, and bonds, but also non-publicly traded loans. Although they usually attract less attention than equity markets, fixed-income markets are more than three times the size of global equity markets.
In fact, the bond market actually has a much higher market capitalisation than that of the stock market.
Outstanding (as of 4Q21) $52.9 trillion, +5.5% Y/Y.
Historically, when stock prices rise and more people are buying to capitalize on that growth, bond prices typically fall on lower demand. Conversely, when stock prices fall, investors want to turn to traditionally lower-risk, lower-return investments such as bonds, and their demand and price tend to increase.
Both equity and fixed-income products are financial instruments that can help investors achieve their financial goals. Equity investments generally consist of stocks or stock funds, while fixed income securities generally consist of corporate or government bonds.
Valued at about $300 trillion, the bond market dwarfs the $124.4 trillion value of the global stock market. The United States accounts for about 40% of the global bond market and about 42% of the global equity market.
Some sectors appeal more to institutional investors, such as banks and pension funds. Others, including the municipal bond market, attract more retail investors. The global fixed-income market was worth over $122.6 trillion as of 2Q22.
The U.S. fixed income markets are the largest in the world, comprising 39.5% of the $135.5 trillion securities outstanding across the globe, or $53.6 trillion (as of 2Q23). This is 2.1x the next largest market, the EU.
Fixed income has outperformed both cash and equities during recessions in the US since 1972. Interest rates tend to begin to decline three months ahead of recessions and reach a cycle low about five months into recessions.
The main factors that impact the prices of fixed-income securities include interest rate changes, default or credit risk, and secondary market liquidity risk.
When have bonds outperform stocks?
Historically, bonds have generated stronger risk-adjusted returns compared to stocks in the three years following Federal Reserve tightening cycles. After the past seven tightening cycles, bonds delivered 89% of the return of stocks with only 26% of the volatility with more consistency in their range of outcomes.
Unlike stocks, bonds come with fixed interest rates that promise a certain return. No matter how the value of the bond fluctuates, you are assured a specific percentage yield on your initial investment⎯albeit a slightly lower one than what you might expect from a stock investment.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
Fixed-income investments pay regular interest and tend to have less risk, making them favorable to risk-averse investors. Equities, on the other hand, can have high returns, but also tend to be riskier. In addition, equities often do not pay regular interest.
Equity markets offer higher expected returns than fixed-income markets, but they also carry higher risk. Equity market investors are typically more interested in capital appreciation and pursue more aggressive strategies than fixed-income market investors.
One of the biggest benefits of fixed-income investing is that it's considered low-risk. That's not to say there is zero risk associated with investing in fixed-income assets, but these investments are typically less volatile and provide a predictable rate of return.
Because of this, bond trading is generally less “liquid” than stock trading. It could be more difficult to sell a bond or get your money back before the maturity date, whereas a stock you can sell at any time.
Bond Yield and the Stock Market - Some Considerations
It is quite interesting that bond yields are an important determinant of equity valuations. While there are exceptions, the equity markets have normally moved negatively with bond yields.
Stocks provide greater return potential than bonds, but with greater volatility along the way. Bonds are issued and sold as a "safe" alternative to the generally bumpy ride of the stock market. Stocks involve greater risk, but with the opportunity of greater return.
The money market is part of the fixed-income market that specializes in short-term debt securities that mature in less than one year. Most money market investments mature in three months or less. These are considered to be cash investments because of their quick maturity dates.
How big is the global high yield bond market?
Thorough Research
The global high yield market is now larger than USD 4.5 trillion. A decade ago, the high yield market consisted primarily of North American issuers; today it is much broader, with an increasingly international flavor coming from European and emerging markets (EM).
Markets are further classified into developed markets, those which are well-established, and emerging markets, which are in an earlier stage of development, and which are further classified into domestic currency and foreign currency bond markets.
Bill Gross co-founded Pacific Investment Management Company, PIMCO, and is known as the "Bond King." He created the first investable market for fixed-income securities. Gross is a successful stamp collector and benefactor of the William H. Gross Stamp Gallery at the Smithsonian National Postal Museum.
The bond market is often referred to as the debt market, fixed-income market, or credit market. It is the collective name given to all trades and issues of debt securities. Governments issue bonds to raise capital to pay debts or fund infrastructural improvements.
