Should you sell bonds when interest rates rise?
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value. The change in bond values only relates to a bond's price on the open market, meaning if the bond is sold before maturity, the seller will obtain a higher or lower price for the bond compared to its face value, depending on current interest rates.
The fixed rate rose to 0.4% in November 2022 so any I bond purchased after that date should be held. Likewise, you may want to hold on to I bonds issued between May and October 2023. Those I bonds have a fixed rate of 0.9%, which is the highest fixed rate in 16 years.
Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
“Bonds' third-quarter success was mostly a function of their interest rate sensitivity,” says Morningstar analyst Ryan Jackson. Still, for many bond funds, including those in the intermediate-core category (a building block for many portfolios), 2023 is now on track for a third year of losses.
If you want to hold on to your I Bond as just a short term investment then you should consider cashing out at the 12-month mark, or perhaps the 15-month mark. Your November 2022 – April 2023 I Bond purchase will earn 6.89% over the first 6 months.
“Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked,” predicts Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.”
In the second half of the year, we look for bond yields to continue to decline. The forces that have been pulling them lower—tightening monetary and fiscal policies—should continue. Treasuries with maturities of two years or longer likely will continue to decline.
In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.) Schwab's 10-year return expectations are well below each asset class' returns from 1970 through October 2023.
Many experts feel that 2023 will bring many opportunities for bond investors. They feel that the Fed is nearing the end of their rate hikes and tightening monetary policy. A recession could certainly put a halt to both Fed tactics. This would aid bonds significantly.
What to do with bonds when interest rates rise?
If market interest rates rise, then the price of the bond with the 2% coupon rate will fall more than that of the bond with the 4% coupon rate. purchase bonds in a low-interest rate environment. A bond's maturity is the specific date in the future at which the face value of the bond will be repaid to the investor.
He says, "Interest rates are now back to almost 30-year norms. Whether you want to build a portfolio with Treasury, municipal, investment-grade corporate, or high-yield bonds, you can get respectable yield and you could do well as rates plateau. You could do even better when interest rates head back down again.”
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
We expect generally good performance during the second half of the year, although volatility may increase, especially for high-yield bonds. Corporate bond investments generally performed well during the first half of the year.
The 4.30% composite rate for I bonds issued from May 2023 through October 2023 applies for the first six months after the issue date. The composite rate combines a 0.90% fixed rate of return with the 3.38% annualized rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Bond funds staged a fourth-quarter comeback in 2023. Through late October, the Morningstar US Core Bond Index, a proxy for the broad fixed-income market, was on pace for a third-consecutive year of losses as uncertainty around a hard or soft landing lingered and interest-rate volatility persisted.
Key Takeaways
The share prices of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in bonds typically go lower when interest rates rise. When market interest rates rise, the fixed rate paid by existing bonds becomes less attractive, sinking these bonds' prices.
However, by selling bonds after they have risen in price – and before maturity – investors can realize price appreciation, also known as capital appreciation, on bonds. Capturing the capital appreciation on bonds increases their total return, which is the combination of income and capital appreciation.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Bonds are a type of security sold by governments and corporations, as a way of raising money from investors. From the seller's perspective, selling bonds is therefore a way of borrowing money.
What is the outlook for bond funds in 2023?
In 2023, the average fund in the bank loan and high-yield bond Morningstar Categories gained 12.1% each. On the other hand, investors who accepted more duration risk, or sensitivity to shifting yields, stomached an uneasy ride over the past 12 months.
In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.) Schwab's 10-year return expectations are well below each asset class' returns from 1970 through October 2023.
Fixed income
Wealthy individuals put about 15% of their assets into fixed-income investments. These are stable investments, like bonds, that earn income over a set period of time. For example, some bonds, like Series I Savings Bonds, pay 4.3% right now and pay out the interest every six months.
Bonds do have some disadvantages: they are debt and can hurt a highly leveraged company, the corporation must pay the interest and principal when they are due, and the bondholders have a preference over shareholders upon liquidation.
If sold prior to maturity, market price may be higher or lower than what you paid for the bond, leading to a capital gain or loss. If bought and held to maturity investor is not affected by market risk.
