What happens to bond funds when interest rates fall?
Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
“Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked,” predicts Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.”
We expect bond yields to decline in line with falling inflation and slower economic growth, but uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy moves will likely be a source of volatility. Nonetheless, we are optimistic that fixed income will deliver positive returns in 2024.
While bond funds and similarly conservative investments have shown their value as safe havens during tough times, investing like a lemming isn't the right strategy for investors seeking long-term growth. Investors also must understand that the safer an investment seems, the less income they can expect from the holding.
“Bonds' third-quarter success was mostly a function of their interest rate sensitivity,” says Morningstar analyst Ryan Jackson. Still, for many bond funds, including those in the intermediate-core category (a building block for many portfolios), 2023 is now on track for a third year of losses.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
Yields to Trend Lower
Key central bank rates and bond yields remain high globally and are likely to remain elevated well into 2024 before retreating. Further, the chance of higher policy rates from here is slim; the potential for rates to decline is much higher.
2023 Performance: Largest U.S. Bond Index Funds
Long-term bond funds saw the lowest returns in 2023. The $51.4 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT gained only 3% on the year, despite surging 13% in the fourth quarter.
Long-term interest rates have been declining rapidly over the past two months. The timing is still good for income-seeking investors to buy shares of bond funds and one excellent example is the ICON Flexible Bond Fund, which is managed by Jerry Paul.
How long will it take for bond funds to recover?
The table on the right shows that bond prices often recover within 8 to 12 months. Unnerved investors that are selling their bond funds risk missing out when bond returns recover.
2 When the market consensus is that a rate increase is right around the corner, it's time to go to market. Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
The fixed rate rose to 0.4% in November 2022 so any I bond purchased after that date should be held. Likewise, you may want to hold on to I bonds issued between May and October 2023. Those I bonds have a fixed rate of 0.9%, which is the highest fixed rate in 16 years.
Investors typically flock to fixed-income investments (such as bonds) or dividend-yielding investments (such as dividend stocks) during recessions because they offer routine cash payments.
Top four schemes in the category offered over 7%. ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund, the topper in the category, offered 7.60% in 2023. Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund offered 7.29%. HDFC Corporate Bond Fund gave 7.20%.
Investors seeking stability in a recession often turn to investment-grade bonds. These are debt securities issued by financially strong corporations or government entities. They offer regular interest payments and a smaller risk of default, relative to bonds with lower ratings.
We expect generally good performance during the second half of the year, although volatility may increase, especially for high-yield bonds. Corporate bond investments generally performed well during the first half of the year.
The 4.30% composite rate for I bonds issued from May 2023 through October 2023 applies for the first six months after the issue date. The composite rate combines a 0.90% fixed rate of return with the 3.38% annualized rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
2022 was the worst year on record for bonds, according to Edward McQuarrie, an investment historian and professor emeritus at Santa Clara University. That's largely due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates aggressively, which clobbered bond prices, especially those for long-term bonds.
The disadvantages of bond funds include higher management fees, the uncertainty created with tax bills, and exposure to interest rate changes.
Why do bond funds go down when interest rates rise?
Key Takeaways
Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
Strong demand should support bonds in 2024
I believe investors are going to shift an increasing amount of money to fixed income and more interest rate-sensitive assets in 2024 as the Fed has signaled an end to its hiking cycle.
Fed hikes have lifted yields across bond sectors
As of November 30, 2023. The Fed has kept rates steady for several months after raising them since March 2022 to the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Officials signaled three rate cuts and intend to lower borrowing costs to 4.6% by the end of 2024.
Growth stocks may see a robust 2024 on the strength of trends such as AI disruption and decarbonization. Small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations as analysts see the possibility of a rebound in 2024. The time could be right for locking in rates on long-term, high-yield bonds.
What were the top-performing funds? Top of the list by some margin was the JP Morgan Emerging Europe, Middle East & Africa investment trust, with a one-year return of almost 50%. The Amundi Semiconductor ETF comfortably took second place with a one-year return of 43%, well ahead of the iShares Poland ETF at 35%.
