What is the current trend of the stock market?
What Is a Trend? A trend is the overall direction of a market or an asset's price. In technical analysis, trends are identified by trendlines or price action that highlight when the price is making higher swing highs and higher swing lows for an uptrend, or lower swing lows and lower swing highs for a downtrend.
| SYMBOL | PRICE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 5,000.62 | +47.45 |
| *GOLD | 2,004.3 | UNCH |
| *OIL | 76.64 | UNCH |
| US 10-YR | 4.261 | -0.006 |
| Symbol | Name | Change |
|---|---|---|
| COMP | NASDAQ Composite Index | -186.24 -1.17% |
| NDX | NASDAQ-100 | -186.64 -1.04% |
| INDU | Dow Industrials | -480.40 -1.24% |
| RUI | Russell 1000 | -34.91 -1.27% |
What Is a Trend? A trend is the overall direction of a market or an asset's price. In technical analysis, trends are identified by trendlines or price action that highlight when the price is making higher swing highs and higher swing lows for an uptrend, or lower swing lows and lower swing highs for a downtrend.
| Index | Last | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 4,953.17 | -1.37%Negative |
| Dow Jones | 38,272.75 | -1.35%Negative |
| Nasdaq | 15,655.60 | -- |
| FTSE 100 | 7,549.76 | +0.50%Positive |
YTD return is the amount of profit (or loss) realized by an investment since the first trading day of the current calendar year. YTD calculations are commonly used by investors and analysts to assess the performance of a portfolio or to compare the recent performance of a number of stocks.
Drastic portfolio value decline: a severe market downturn can lead to a significant reduction in the overall value of an investment portfolio. Loss of retirement savings: retirement accounts heavily invested in the stock market can suffer substantial losses, jeopardizing long-term financial plans.
"Some traders predict a flat or down market in the first half of 2024 due to high inflation, recession fears and rate hikes from the Fed. However, others foresee a bull market continuing, citing potential Fed rate cuts, earnings growth and historical trends around election years."
- Fruit & Nut Farming in the US. ...
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- Ship Building in the US. ...
- Wind Power in the US.
The S&P 500 followed its 26.28% gain in 2023 with a 1.68% gain in January despite a lackluster start to fourth-quarter earnings season.
Why does the stock market trend up?
If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.
Black Thursday is considered the first day of the Stock Market Crash of 1929,1 which lasted until Oct. 29, marking the end of a decade-long bull market and the onset of the Great Depression.
A bullish market for a currency pair occurs when its exchange rate is rising overall and forming higher highs and lows. On the other hand, a bearish market is characterised by a generally falling exchange rate through lower highs and lows.
Basic Info. S&P 500 3 Month Return is at 15.54%, compared to 11.24% last month and 5.28% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 1.62%.
The US stock market indices ended lower on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its biggest one-day percentage drop in nearly 11 months, after higher-than-expected consumer inflation data pushed back expectations of imminent interest rate cuts and lifted US Treasury yields higher.
The average stock market return for the last 5 years was 11.33% (7.28% when adjusted for inflation), for the last 10 years it was 12.39% (9.48% when adjusted for inflation), for the last 20 years it was 9.75% (7.03% when adjusted for inflation), and for the last 30 years it was 9.90% (7.22% when adjusted for inflation) ...
The average stock market return is about 10% per year, as measured by the S&P 500 index, but that 10% average rate is reduced by inflation. Investors can expect to lose purchasing power of 2% to 3% every year due to inflation.
Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 30 Years
The average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 10.04% over the last 30 years, as of the end of December 2023. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 30-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 7.32%.
S&P 500 Monthly Total Return is at 1.59%, compared to 4.54% last month and 6.28% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 0.69%. The S&P 500 Monthly Total Return is the investment return received each month, including dividends, when holding the S&P 500 index.
When the stock market declines, the market value of your stock investment can decline as well. However, because you still own your shares (if you didn't sell them), that value can move back into positive territory when the market changes direction and heads back up. So, you may lose value, but that can be temporary.
What is the stock market outlook for 2024?
As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.
Sometimes, however, the economy turns or an asset bubble pops—in which case, markets crash. Investors who experience a crash can lose money if they sell their positions, instead of waiting it out for a rise. Those who have purchased stock on margin may be forced to liquidate at a loss due to margin calls.
In 2022, U.S. equities suffered their second bear market in three years. Stocks bounced back decisively in 2023, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 20% through July before retreating between August and October. In November, markets recovered, and stocks closed out the year with a sharp rally.
With stocks up significantly in 2023, the potential of “higher for longer” interest rates and an economy that could still weaken, the bias might be for a stagnant or lower market in 2024. But a significant economic downturn or intransigent inflation may well still play havoc with the market.
Stock Market Forecast 2024: Wall Street Price Targets
Growth is expected to improve in 2024. Analysts are calling for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.5%, Butters says.
