By Tierney Smith
Greenhouse gas emissions up to the present day have triggered an irreversible warming that will cause sea levels to rise for thousands of years, scientists have warned.
A study, published in Environmental Research Letters, found that the world could already be committed to a sea level rise of 1.1 metres by the year 3000.
It is one of the first times a studied has considered the impacts of glaciers, ice caps, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and the expansion of oceans as they warm.
It is still difficult for scientists to model how the polar ice sheets might react to climate change. Accounting for approximately 200,000 individual glaciers worldwide can also be complicated.
It remains difficult for scientists to model how the Antarctic ice sheet will react to climate change and how this could impact sea levels (Source: Mark 217/Creative Commons)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report predicted sea-levels would rise between 18 and 59 cm by 2100. This assessment did not include the impact of the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets.
In 2009, however, two years after the IPCC report, scientists at the climate change congress in Copenhagen said changes to these ice sheets could put sea level rises at a metre or more by 2100.
The latest study found that if the world was to follow the high emissions scenario adopted by the IPPC an 8.6 metre sea-level rise could be expected in the next thousand years.
In the other scenarios (B1 and A1B), sea-level rises of 2.1 and 4.1 metres were seen respectively.
In all their models researchers found the Greenland ice sheet to be responsible for more than half of the sea level rise, with an expansion of warming oceans as the second highest contributor.
It found the contributions of glacier melt to be small.
“Ice sheets are very slow components in the climate system; they respond on time scales of thousands of years,” said Professor Philippe Huybrechts, co-author of the study.
“Together with the long life-time of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, this inertia is the real poison on the climate system: anything we do now that changes the forcing in the climate system will necessarily have long consequences for the ice sheets and sea level.”
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FAQs
A study, published in Environmental Research Letters, found that the world could already be committed to a sea level rise of 1.1 metres by the year 3000.
What will the climate be in the year 3000? ›
If the current temperature trend continues, the global average temperature will raise by 10 degrees Celsius or 18 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 3000.
What will the weather be like in 3000? ›
New research indicates the impact of rising CO2 levels in Earth's atmosphere will cause unstoppable effects to the climate for at least the next 1000 years, causing researchers to estimate a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet by the year 3000, and an eventual rise in the global sea level of at least four metres.
How much will sea level rise by 2500? ›
By the year 2500, sea level rise is projected to 5.5 meters (upper medium estimate). In the long run, a catastrophic 14 meter rise in sea levels could take place.
How many meters does the sea level rise each year? ›
Long-term measurements of tide gauges and recent satellite data show that global sea level is rising, with the best estimate of the rate of global-average rise over the last decade being 3.6 mm per year (0.14 inches per year).
How much will the sea level rise by 3000? ›
A study, published in Environmental Research Letters, found that the world could already be committed to a sea level rise of 1.1 metres by the year 3000.
What will the world be like in year 3000? ›
Nine hundred and seventy-seven years from now, in the year 3000 CE, our civilization and Earth will almost be unrecognizable to us in the present. We will be re-engineered as well as our planet. From there we will master the Solar System and beyond making the leaps to Type 3, 4, 5 and beyond.
How high will sea levels be in 2300? ›
Post-2100 sea level rise. If countries cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly (lowest trace), sea level rise by 2100 will be limited to 0.3 to 0.6 meters (1–2 feet). However, in a worst-case scenario (top trace), sea levels could rise 5 meters (16 feet) by the year 2300.
How high would sea levels rise if all ice melted? ›
There is still some uncertainty about the full volume of glaciers and ice caps on Earth, but if all of them were to melt, global sea level would rise approximately 70 meters (approximately 230 feet), flooding every coastal city on the planet.
How much do estimates predict sea levels will rise by 2100? ›
In the 2022 report, the task force concluded that even on the pathway with the lowest possible greenhouse gas emissions and warming (1.5 degrees C), global mean sea level would rise at least 0.3 meters (1 foot) above 2000 levels by 2100.
Sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 - 12 inches (0.25 - 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 - 2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).
What was the sea level in 5000 years ago? ›
Meltwater pulse 1C was centered at 8,000 years ago and produced a rise of 6.5 m in less than 140 years, such that sea levels 5000 years ago were around 3m lower than present day, as evidenced in many locations by fossil beaches.
How much has the sea level risen in the last 20000 years? ›
Global sea level was about 125 meters below today's sea level at the last glacial maximum about 20,000 years ago (Fairbanks, 1989). As the climate warmed, sea level rose because the melting North American, Eurasian, South American, Greenland, and Antarctic ice sheets returned their stored water to the world's oceans.
What will be the temperature of Earth in 3000? ›
A large constant composition temperature and sea level commitment is evident in the simulations and is slowly realised over coming centuries. By the year 3000, the warming range is 1.9°C to 5.6°C. While surface temperatures approach equilibrium relatively quickly, sea level continues to rise for many centuries.
How many years is year 3000 away? ›
For example: 2021-2020=1. It is therefore one year until this month and day in 2021. This same concept applies to the year 3000. Therefore, the same date and time in the year 3000 is 980 years away.
What will the human population be in 3000? ›
United Nations Population Division Projection: The United Nations (UN) projects that the world population will peak around 2100 at approximately 11 billion and then start to decline [1]. If current trends continue, it is suggested that there may be no people left by the year 3000 [1].
What will the world be like in 5000 years? ›
Regardless, a lot can happen in 5,000 years. We might destroy ourselves with warfare or unwittingly ravage the planet with nanotechnology. Perhaps we'll fail to mitigate the threat posed by asteroid and comet collisions. We might even encounter an alien type II civilization long before we achieve that level ourselves.
