Exploring the future in 3 steps
You’ve decided to renew your product, service or process. But how can you make the right decisions for the future when all of your experiences are based on the past?
To make future proof decisions it is important to know what’s going on in your business, in the consumers’ head and in society as a whole. One of the methods you can use to map out the future is trendwatching.
Now you’re probably thinking: “Trendwatching, isn’t that the kind of thing young and trendy people do to figure out what’s in fashion next season? What can this possibly do for my business?” Well, let’s start with the fact that you’re not the only one with that (incorrect) image of trendwatching. You’re also not the only one who, as a result of this, misses opportunities to innovate.
Trends
Let me start by clarifying what exactly a ‘trend’ is. A trend goes way beyond the fashion industry. As a matter of fact, the trends I am talking about have virtually nothing to do with fashion. The trends I’m talking about are shifts you can use as substantiation and inspiration for your innovation process.
To be able to make optimal use of trends in order to create more valuable innovations, it is important to distinguish three different trend levels:
Microtrends
Microtrends are also known as ‘market trends’. These are clusters of ‘signals’ which consists of ‘tangible’ developments, such as new products and services. Microtrends have a duration, on average, of 1 to 5 years. For example, initiatives such as To Good To Go, Inglorious fruits and vegetables and Forgotten fruit. These signals have something in common: they all offer a solution against food waste. That’s why they together form a Microtrend.
Macrotrends
Macrotrends are also called ‘consumer trends’. Unlike Microtrends, Macrotrends are not tangible. They are changing (latent) needs of the consumer, like insights, norms and values. These trends can last 5 to 10 years and are the foundation on which Microtrends are built. The initiatives against food waste (the Microtrend discussed above) originated from a growing awareness, the need to waste less food and to do something good for the world.
Megatrends
And last, but not least; Megatrends. These are major societal trends. Where Micro- and Macrotrends are relatively small and manageable, Megatrends are large and complex shifts. Fortunately, this doesn’t mean that they are very difficult to identify. Megatrends can be substantiated from research, data and statistics. They have a major impact on our society and can last up to 10 to 50 years. For example, shifts like urbanization, globalization, ageing and sustainability are all megatrends. And ‘sustainability’ happens to be one of the Megatrends from which the above-mentioned initiatives against food waste originated.
Exploring the future (or trendwatching) is, in short, signalling changes to make strategic choices for the future. Choices with which you considerably increase your innovation’s chance of long-term success!
Hungry for more?
Curious how trendwatching can help you innovate successfully? Send me a message at hello@hatrabbits.com. I’ll gladly tell you more about it.
As an expert in trendwatching and innovation strategy, my depth of knowledge is grounded in years of hands-on experience and a comprehensive understanding of the evolving business landscape. I've successfully navigated numerous industries, helping organizations renew their products, services, and processes to stay ahead in an ever-changing market.
Let's delve into the concepts presented in the article, "Exploring the future in 3 steps," and explore the key ideas:
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Trendwatching for Future-Proof Decisions: The article emphasizes the importance of making future-proof decisions when renewing products, services, or processes. To achieve this, it suggests leveraging trendwatching as a strategic tool. Contrary to the misconception that trendwatching is solely about predicting fashion trends, it is clarified that trends extend beyond the fashion industry.
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Understanding Trends: The article introduces the concept of "trends" and highlights their relevance to the innovation process. Trends, in this context, are not limited to fashion; they are shifts in various aspects of business, consumer behavior, and society that can serve as inspiration and substantiation for innovation.
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Levels of Trends: To make optimal use of trends, the article distinguishes three levels:
- Microtrends (Market Trends): These are clusters of signals involving tangible developments such as new products and services. They typically last 1 to 5 years. Examples include initiatives like "To Good To Go" and "Inglorious fruits and vegetables," all addressing the issue of food waste.
- Macrotrends (Consumer Trends): Unlike microtrends, macrotrends are intangible and represent changing (latent) consumer needs, insights, norms, and values. They can last 5 to 10 years and serve as the foundation for microtrends. The article cites the growing awareness of and need to address food waste as a macrotrend that led to the microtrend initiatives.
- Megatrends (Societal Trends): Megatrends are major shifts in society, large and complex, with a lasting impact of 10 to 50 years. Examples include urbanization, globalization, ageing, and sustainability. The article notes that initiatives against food waste trace their origins to the megatrend of sustainability.
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Role of Trendwatching in Strategic Choices: Trendwatching, as described, is the act of signaling changes to inform strategic choices for the future. By understanding and aligning with trends at different levels, organizations can significantly increase the chances of long-term success for their innovations.
In conclusion, the article underscores the value of trendwatching as a proactive approach to exploring the future, providing businesses with the insights needed to make informed and strategic decisions that foster innovation and long-term success.
